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amega
Barker
Joined: Nov 18, 2004
Posts: 199
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 Posted:
July 21, 2005 - 11:53 AM |
 
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| Post subject: China according to the Pentagon |
China according to the Pentagon
By Ehsan Ahrari
The Pentagon's latest judgment on China's military preparedness is that "China is facing a strategic crossroads." In a July 19 report, the US Department of Defense (DoD) stated that, China is "focused on preventing Taiwan independence or trying to compel Taiwan to negotiate a settlement on Beijing's terms". It is attempting to counter potential US intervention in cross-Strait crises by building up "an expanding force of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, submarines, advanced aircraft, and other modern systems".
Given that the report is vetted by the inter-agency process, it is rather dull reading compared to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's June 5 statement in Singapore. He then accused China of enhancing its ability to project power at a time when it faced no threat.
It is taken for granted by now that the Bush administration is watching China's military modernization with interest. There is no alarmist element in the DoD report. America's military preponderance is unchallenged. But as a rising power, China is keenly interested in narrowing the power gap between the two militaries.
A very important aspect of this report is its discussion of "direct insight into China's strategy". Though Chinese culture is rather alien to the United States, a considerable amount of time has been spent by America's military institutions in studying ancient Chinese military philosopher Sun Tzu's perspectives on winning a war, about the use of deception in peacetime as well as during war, the necessity of conducting a successful information battle, and above all the art of strategic thinking among China's military leaders, from Sun Tzu to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
In fact, compared to these last two leaders, the current leadership of China has not impressed the American side by its original thinking in the art of war. Still, as evidenced in this report, the Pentagon is fully focused on studying China's strategy. The report states, "... Chinese strategy, as they define it, is one of maintaining balance among competing priorities for national economic development and maintaining the type of security environment within which such development can occur".
The report notes that Chinese leaders, from Deng on, have described their national development strategy as a quest to increase "comprehensive national power".
"In peacetime, we can expect China to pursue economic progress as part of its strategy to build comprehensive national power. It has established a goal of doubling by 2010 the size of its economy in 2000 and raising GDP per capita ($1,250 in 2004) to the levels of an 'intermediate development country' (roughly $3,400) by 2049."
The report adds, "Chinese leaders value such progress for its own sake, as well as for the enhancements to military forces and national power this progress will allow." On this issue, the Pentagon goes to the heart of the current economic competition between the US and China and the vital linkage of this competition to its military preparedness. No country knows this linkage better than the United States, which has mastered it in order to remain at the top of the hierarchy of nations.
All rising powers use their economic revenues to build their military muscle. Britain and the Netherlands did that in the 18th century and emerged as major maritime powers. That in turn enabled them to acquire colonies in far-off lands. More recently, the United States built its military power by enhancing its economic power, especially in the period between the two world wars, and eventually emerged as the most durable superpower.
The secret of America's durability is in its constant attention to ensuring that its economy remains highly vibrant. The vibrancy of America's economic sector depends on the sustained ability of its productive sectors to remain at the cutting edge of technological development. That reality is ensured, inter alia, by constantly spending large amounts of money on research and development.
According to a recent report of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, "The (fiscal year) 2005 budget calls for a $5.45 billion increase in (research and development) funding over funds for 2004. But while the size of the total R&D pie will remain steady (when adjusted for inflation), a shift in priorities after 9/11 means that 'Them that's got shall get/Them that's not shall lose.'''
It added, "Under the Bush proposal, defense R&D, which already accounted for more than 55 percent of the federal appropriations for research, would have an additional $4 billion - more than three-quarters of the total funding increase - added to its R&D budget. The Pentagon, whose research budget would then total $69.9 billion, would use the increase exclusively for weapons development."
In the strategic thinking of Chinese leaders regarding military modernization, the resolution of Taiwan figures prominently. The DoD report states, "Some Chinese military analysts have expressed the view that control of Taiwan would enable the PLA [People's Liberation Army] navy to move its maritime defensive perimeter further eastward and improve Beijing's ability to influence regional sea lines of communication. Conversely, some of these analysts believe, the political status quo with Taiwan constrains China's ability to project power."
Still, China as a rising economic power has much to lose if it attempts a military resolution of the Taiwan conflict. The DoD report acknowledges that. It states, "China is deterred from taking military action against Taiwan on two levels. It does not yet possess the military capability to accomplish with confidence its political objectives on the island, particularly when confronted with outside intervention. Beijing is also deterred by the potential repercussions of any use of force against Taiwan."
In other words, "China's leaders recognize that a war could severely retard economic development." At the same time, China "must calculate the probability of US intervention in any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. It views the United States as having advantages over China in many scenarios involving the use of military force".
These annual reports issued by the Pentagon are important in the sense that they provide insight into the thinking of America's top military leaders. No one should conclude from them that China and the US are on a path to confrontation.
There is no doubt that, despite its inordinate preoccupation in conducting a global war on terrorism, the Bush administration has never lost sight of a rising China and its long-term implications for America's own dominance, not just in the Asia Pacific, but also around the world.
As America spans the globe, China is the only country that has the potential to become a challenger, or even an adversary, if for no other reason than the simple fact that it also wishes to be a dominant actor. As long as both sides pursue a general strategy of accommodation whenever feasible, and continue to keep the competitive aspects of their mutual ties at a manageable level, the world is likely to remain a safe place.
Ehsan Ahrari is an independent strategic analyst based in Alexandria, VA, US. His columns appear regularly in Asia Times Online. He is also a regular contributor to the Global Beat Syndicate. His website: www.ehsanahrari.com. |
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*CheerLeader*Mao
Post Roaster
Joined: July 07, 2004
Posts: 4678
Location: frenCh belgiuM
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| Posted:
July 21, 2005 - 12:45 PM |
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this is one of the worst articles i have ever read. it is 99% opinion of its writer (there is no way i would call this person a journalist).
| Quote: |
| As America spans the globe, China is the only country that has the potential to become a challenger, or even an adversary, if for no other reason than the simple fact that it also wishes to be a dominant actor. |
haha, what an idiot. china wants so badly to be a threat does it. well it has little hope. anyone who studied basic supply and demand theory will be able to predict what will happen to china. it won't be the only supply of cheap labour forever. |
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Nick-la
Wonder Wit
Joined: July 19, 2003
Posts: 3675
Location: Wasted on this site
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July 21, 2005 - 12:52 PM |
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the pentagon made their report, then of course china disagreed.
After making the new taiwan agression 'law'.
After stating they will use nukes if necessary (even though "it wasnt party policy" whatever)
After holding highly state-approved anti-jap rallies nationwide.
not a threat. I see. (and yes america is of course a threat to world peace, but slightly irrelevant here) |
_________________
I'm surrounded by idiots. |
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*CheerLeader*Mao
Post Roaster
Joined: July 07, 2004
Posts: 4678
Location: frenCh belgiuM
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| Posted:
July 21, 2005 - 05:04 PM |
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