President of Taiwan Maintains Possibility of Unification

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Henry_Chinaski
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Joined: Aug 16, 2003
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Posted: Feb 28, 2005 - 02:59 PM
Post subject: President of Taiwan Maintains Possibility of Unification

President of Taiwan Maintains Possibility of Unification with China, but Emphasises Need for Goodwill

Making good on his promises to pursue more harmonious relations with both China and domestic opposition parties, President Chen Shui-bian raised eyebrows today by jointly declaring with PFP leader James Soong that they would 'not rule out the possibility of any model of relationship [with China] evolving on the basis of goodwill'.

Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian held a much-anticipated meeting with James Soong of the People First Party (PFP) yesterday, delivering on his promise to work more closely with his political opponents. After their meeting at the Taipei Guest House, the two signed a joint 10-point agreement covering a broad range of issues, from cross-Strait relations and national defence to ethnic reconciliation, marking a long-overdue start to dialogue between the island's governing and opposition camps. The meeting would have been symbolic enough in itself, but the establishment of common goals and values immediately elevated the tête-à-tête to 'milestone' status - a feeling that was reflected in the lofty post-meeting rhetoric from the Taiwanese president, who said, 'The results of today's discussion highlight two important things. First, that governing and opposition camp's co-operation and inter-party co-operation is possible. There are no insurmountable differences between parties and political figures. So long as everyone sits down with the people's interests in mind, it is possible to make big steps towards reconciliation'.

In actual fact, yesterday marked the second time that the two leaders had met for talks, but current circumstances are significantly more conducive to progress than they were at the two men's first meeting in 2000. At that time, election pressures prevented much in the way of substantive dialogue, with both sides attempting to score political points instead of improve relations. Chen and Soong also both agreed that they were older and wiser now, capable of disagreeing without acrimony; Chen said, 'Our nation wants mature, democratic politics. While both Soong and I have ideals that we will never abandon, we want to help the Taiwanese people find the room and time to live their lives'.

The Details... and the 'Devil' Therein

The 10-point agreement included some very general boilerplate verbiage about a number of topics, but laid out rather concrete promises in other areas. Chen pledged, for example, that during the remainder of his presidential term, there would be no declaration of independence, no change of the island's official name (from 'Republic of China' to simply 'Taiwan'), no promotion of the 'state-to-state' dialogue formulation, and no referendum on either unification or independence. While Chen has made all these promises in the past, he has never done so as part of a 'grand bargain' with political opponents. The two also agreed on the need for Taiwan to have strong defence capabilities, but have not yet reached consensus on precisely what this means. Chen and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have been pushing for a special 15-year defence budget to purchase NT$610.8 billion (US$19.4 billion) worth of US-made military hardware, but they have faced considerable opposition from the Kuomintang (KMT) and PFP, who have declared that such expenditure is both wasteful and provocative. This powerful opposition prompted the Ministry of Defence to reduce its spending proposal by 21%, down to NT$480 billion (US$15.4 billion), but opposition lawmakers maintain that this is still too high (see Taiwan: 22 February 2005: Controversial Military Budget Cut Further in Taiwan, as President to Meet PFP Leader).

Not everyone was excited to see the president building bridges with the PFP, especially since his direct promise not to change the island's official name or promote Taiwanese sovereignty flies in the face of his presidential campaign platform, which successfully tapped the growing sense of Taiwanese nationalism. The Taipei Times newspaper published an editorial piece entitled 'Chen makes a pact with the devil', while pro-independence activists protested outside the Taipei Guest House, accusing the president of kowtowing to China and opposition politicians. Lo Chih-ming of the pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) lashed out, saying, 'Chen surrendered to pro-unification groups and succumbed to China. He didn't represent the voice of the 23 million Taiwan people... he totally cheated voters'. Fellow TSU lawmaker Yin Ling-ying added, 'Anyone who supports Taiwan sovereignty can't agree with (Chen's) statement. I urge a referendum to recall Chen'.

Outlook and Implications

This newfound spirit of co-operation certainly comes as a surprise, given that the pair hold sharply divergent views on the critical issue of Taiwanese nationhood, with Chen driving a pro-independence agenda and Soong working towards unification with the mainland. Instead of reinforcing this apparently irreconcilable divide, Chen edged ever so slightly towards the centre, claiming that he would not rule out eventual unification, provided that such a development took place within the parameters of the island's constitution. Unsurprisingly, he refused to rule out formal independence either, telling reporters, 'One cannot ask a political party or a person to give up their long-standing conviction, but we found a point of agreement for the good of the nation'.

At this point, it certainly would appear that Soong is the short-term victor from this grand bargain, as his ability to build bridges and influence the ruling government bolsters his power credentials, providing a much-needed shot in the arm for a PFP that would probably face political extinction without his leadership. If Soong does not link up with the DPP, he faces the prospect of his party becoming further marginalised from mainstream politics, as the KMT continues to dominate the pan-blue camp. The DPP, eager to heal the legislative divisions that it is itself partly responsible for creating, is rumoured to be considering putting Soong at the head of a Cabinet-backed cross-Strait peace committee, in exchange for his parliamentary support. Meanwhile, other PFP officials - such as Vice Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung - could be offered leadership positions at cabinet-level ministries, as a possible deal-sweetener. The DPP itself needs a deal with the PFP, in order to shore up its own political future and ensure it is in a strong position for 2008's presidential and legislative elections, but Chen's apparent willingness to edge closer to the PFP line could damage his own standing among the pan-green ranks.

In either case, it is far from certain that China will respond to these developments with the hoped-for 'goodwill', given that it is intending to unveil anti-secession legislation next week, which would lay out the legal groundwork for a possible future invasion of the island, despite considerable pressure from the US and others not to raise the risk of cross-Strait conflict.

Not very versed in Taiwan issues, but looks like people are being reasonable in their approach, which is good for everybody, specially business.

Kiwi, as our Taiwan specialist, any views?

Kiwi

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Posted: Feb 28, 2005 - 11:49 PM

Sorry to say I haven't been keeping up with the latest Taiwan news all that closely. So maybe there is something I am missing on this one.

But overall it doesn't appear hugely significant in terms of the relationship with China. It seems more like a move by Chen to make the DPP appear more moderate and widen his support base. He is risking his more hardcore supporters. But the KMT and PFP are a greater threat to the DPP than the TSU (which isn't very significant), and so he probably feels he needs to move slightly center to keep his party in power.

Basically the whole thing is probably a reaction to the DPP's slightly disappointing performance in the legislature elections a few months back. The DPP increased its number of seats, but not meaningfully, and the pan-Blues made quite a come back. In the context the whole thing was disappointing for them.

The presidential election a year ago was a huge victory for the DPP. When Chen was first elected to the presidency he only made it because the KMT/PFP vote was split. In winning a second term he beat a combined KMT/PFP ticket, which many people thought impossible. The DPP also really solidified their support amongst younger voters.

Given that they were hoping to build upon their impressive performance and gain an outright majority in the legislature during the last elections (allowing them to finally govern the country without constant interference from the pan-Blues), the outcome was a big disappointment for them.

I guess the message from the recent legislature elections was that people are concerned at all the missiles China has pointed at them and want to put the brakes on any moves towards independence. Chen more moderate statements on the cross-strait issue may help in restoring public faith that he isn't planning anything rash.

So far as the relationship with China goes, Chen is still saying that any cross-strait negotiations must take place within the framework of the Taiwanese (ROC) constitution. Since the ROC is also 'China' that effectively means that cross-strait dialogue cannot get started unless China concedes on its own preconditions for negotiations, namely that Taiwan accepts there is only 'one China' before sitting down at the negotiating table. The fundamental impasse still stands, so in that context Chen's comments don't look very important.