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MaomingMaster
Board Legend
Joined: Feb 03, 2004
Posts: 11059
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Dec 16, 2005 - 07:03 AM |
 
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| Post subject: Will 2006 be an annus horribilis for China? |
I mean the timing couldn't be any less perfect.
Just as the CCP prepare for meetings in KL and Hong Kong for the Asean summit and WTO respectively the **** hits the fan big time.
Killings in a tiny village 200 miles from Hong Kong, massive chemical spills in Jilin (which also threatened Russia), an absurd number of mining disasters and now a couple more chemical spills (oil in Wuhan, pig **** in Chengdu) amid more news of more arrests of corrupt government officials.
The central government must be working 24/7 trying to either frantically cover stories up, reinvent them or reluctantly admit to them. No wonder then that the Peoples Daily publishes articles like this one - http://english.people.com.cn/200512/15/eng20051215_228268.html - which only serves as a vain attempt to scream to the world 'Look! China is good, we're doing alright, aren't we?'
I'm not denying any of China's merits - a meteoric economy (now overtaken Britain, France, Italy, etc - due to, er, 'reassessed' figures) and massive massive development. It's just that this transition from Third World Country to 'Superpower' or whatever you want to call it is far from smooth. Of course that transition is bound to be a bit rocky, but it seems that there are bloody great boulders in the way.
I think the chief problem between China and the rest of the world is the lying. Let's not skirt around the issue here - China has lied consistantly about Sars, Bird Flu, the murder of innocent villagers, chemical spills, etc etc - how is that doing them any favours?
This coupled with the continuing saga between itself and it's petulant, arrogant sibling Japan just makes the situation worse.
Happy New Year China! All the best!
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acujerjer
Board Royalty
Joined: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 7770
Location: up your butt and around the corner
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Dec 16, 2005 - 07:19 AM |
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MMM, what is the reason china is considered such an economic powerhouse? Are these figures real or made up? If they are real, is it 100% from foreign business? What is this? I never understood how a third world country can be considered powerful. |
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acujerjer:This is an American, also is everywhere provokes the young woman the dandy. |
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Henry_Chinaski
Board Lord
Joined: Aug 16, 2003
Posts: 5025
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Dec 16, 2005 - 08:09 AM |
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Acu, China owns a fkng shiatload of the US treasury bonds. I mean, hundreds of billions of dollars of it. This per se is undeniably powerful in the current US economy situation (especially considering the real estate bubble bursting next year).
If you can, try to find an article called "China: From T-shirts to T-bonds". I have it on pdf format, PM me and I send it over to you. Perhaps a bit too economical, but goes directly to the "power" issues. A must read.
Off for a morning dump. |
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MaomingMaster
Board Legend
Joined: Feb 03, 2004
Posts: 11059
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Dec 16, 2005 - 08:15 AM |
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Can you send it to me HC? I'd like to read it. |
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acujerjer
Board Royalty
Joined: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 7770
Location: up your butt and around the corner
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Dec 16, 2005 - 08:20 AM |
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How did they get into owning US treasury bonds? is this their key strategy? Elaborate please. Excuse my ignorance but I don't understand how foreign countries that come to China to do business, causes China to be considered an economic powerhouse. Doesn't that just make china one huge sweat shop? |
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acujerjer:This is an American, also is everywhere provokes the young woman the dandy. |
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Henry_Chinaski
Board Lord
Joined: Aug 16, 2003
Posts: 5025
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Dec 16, 2005 - 08:33 AM |
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Sure. Whomever wants it, please PM your email address.
I might sign up your emails on NickLas gay maillists tho. |
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MaomingMaster
Board Legend
Joined: Feb 03, 2004
Posts: 11059
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Dec 16, 2005 - 08:42 AM |
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Ha ha ha!!
I'm already signed up there I think.... |
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maodaman
Barker
Joined: Nov 30, 2005
Posts: 183
Location: maotown
Status: Offline
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Dec 16, 2005 - 09:40 AM |
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| If you can, try to find an article called "China: From T-shirts to T-bonds". I have it on pdf format, PM me and I send it over to you. Perhaps a bit too economical |
I don't think you need to sent it to acujerjer, I highly doubt his capability of comprehand any "economical" subject. he graduated from community college, we all know what kind of people cc normally produce, don't we? |
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there is NO god |
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yu888
Board Deity
Joined: Jan 25, 2003
Posts: 17971
Location: ZhongShanParkArea SH
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Dec 16, 2005 - 09:44 AM |
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at least Acuj ADMITS to his own ignorance and is willing to learn. |
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acujerjer
Board Royalty
Joined: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 7770
Location: up your butt and around the corner
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Dec 16, 2005 - 09:51 AM |
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I have a Masters Degree Maodaman.
There have been probably 100 threads geared at you maodaman and you haven't understood the point of any of them. |
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acujerjer:This is an American, also is everywhere provokes the young woman the dandy. |
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maodaman
Barker
Joined: Nov 30, 2005
Posts: 183
Location: maotown
Status: Offline
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Dec 16, 2005 - 10:05 AM |
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acuj, I have an idea, since you always believe that you are so super smart and know everything about China and Chinese, maybe we should make you as our Chairman. hey a laowai Chairman ! what do you think? you may be able to fix all of our problems. any thoughts? |
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there is NO god |
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Henry_Chinaski
Board Lord
Joined: Aug 16, 2003
Posts: 5025
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Dec 16, 2005 - 10:17 AM |
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"How did they get into owning US treasury bonds? is this their key strategy? Elaborate please. Excuse my ignorance but I don't understand how foreign countries that come to China to do business, causes China to be considered an economic powerhouse. Doesn't that just make china one huge sweat shop?"
They got into owning treasury bonds mostly because they have a huge surplus of dollars due their massive exports.
T-bonds have the effect of a sponge, "sucking" dollar out of circulation, together with interest rates.
Interest rates determine a number of economic factors in an economy, and it directly impactsw money supply, which impacts inflation, investment, employment, ...
T-bonds are tradable and are liquid: China could potentially put a lot of T-bonds into circulation at attractive rates and "suck" dollars from the US, which could unbalance the strategy of the Fed at a given time.
Not that doing that would help China in any way, but you get the picture.
The fact is: the two economies are deeply inter related. I think your way of seeing the world as "if country is 3rd world then they have no power whatsoever" is deeply flawed and pre-globalization. It is really simplistic man. With the interconnection of the countries via globalization the definition of "power" are very fuzzy.
As mentioned in other threads, developed countries are service-based economies. Manufacturing is not their deal anymore. That's why the economies of scale and cost advantages that China deliver are highly important: they have a deflationary effect in developed economies, which is great considering the maturity most of them are.
So, even if you dont want to admit it, China has a lot of power in the world economy, and exports TO China are fundamental for the recovery of many countries too, specially the traditional capital goods exporters (Germany and Japan). Obviouslly this power NEEDS to be followed to an update in military might (as has been observed throughout history). It all makes good sense if you stop and think. So, it's not that China is winning the world exporting rubber flip-flops, they are also buying billions in machinery, ...
One thing I deeply believe: China might have tremendous problems at enforcing policies at local levels. The cadres in Beijing though, the guys running the macro show, they are FKNG GOOD and HIGHLY QUALIFIED people that know their shiat as well as anybody else.
When China learns to run their system locally a little bit better, they will then be ready to start talking democracy, etc, etc. As for now, the guys running the show are sacred monster of administration. One thing that can be said of government at local levels: Chinese banks now that they are fkd and know that all their performance measurements need to change to reflect profitability. There is a huge ongoing movement in that front to sanitize the management at local levels. This will to a great extent break the current "partnership" between government and bank that rules money supply in China. Stay tunned on that.
It's scary man. It's scary actually.
But I think we could debate this for days without reaching a conclusion.
Good thread though. We should have more threads like. |
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acujerjer
Board Royalty
Joined: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 7770
Location: up your butt and around the corner
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Dec 16, 2005 - 10:18 AM |
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If I was Chairman even if I fixed all your problems you would just talk about the glory days of Jiang or Deng when you had a Chinese running the country. You see what you want to see, not what is. |
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acujerjer:This is an American, also is everywhere provokes the young woman the dandy. |
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maodaman
Barker
Joined: Nov 30, 2005
Posts: 183
Location: maotown
Status: Offline
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Dec 16, 2005 - 10:37 AM |
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HC, I'm truely surprised that a laowai knows so much about my country. unlike acuj who knows nothing but "one person one vote, freedom of speech.." shiit which is like keep telling the whole world that earth is actully rotating. Acuj, you need to come up something more interesting. like what HC has got.
acuj, do you really have a master degree ? |
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there is NO god |
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acujerjer
Board Royalty
Joined: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 7770
Location: up your butt and around the corner
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Dec 16, 2005 - 10:40 AM |
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HC just wrote about what he read about. I write about what I experience.
HC, that is very interesting. |
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acujerjer:This is an American, also is everywhere provokes the young woman the dandy. |
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Henry_Chinaski
Board Lord
Joined: Aug 16, 2003
Posts: 5025
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Dec 16, 2005 - 10:46 AM |
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^^ Nah man. The information is all there for anyone to read. You just need to have a bit of time, willingness and most importantly an open mind.
Speaking of democracy, not sure if you heard about this guy called Yu Keping. He slices the requirements for democracy in China in what he defines as "incremental democracy". If you stop and think and understand the concept you will see that to creat an effective democracy the "incremental steps" make tremendous sense.
You cannot have democracy without having its supporting systems in place and fully functional. Not surprisingly this guy is extremely well regarded in Beijing.
I posted some of his stuff here: http://www.mygreenhead.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=artic le&sid=142&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0&MDPROSID=5cf927a50929897510fd65 4802575cf9 |
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Henry_Chinaski
Board Lord
Joined: Aug 16, 2003
Posts: 5025
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Dec 16, 2005 - 10:52 AM |
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"HC just wrote about what he read about. I write about what I experience."
I think acujerjer has a point in that he thinks experiencing it is more/as much important as having knowledge of the macro system behind it.
Well, I dont disagree with that but I think that just experiencing it without understanding the framework the things are happening can be a bit misleading.
Most laowais fart out of their mouths exactly because they think that "being shoved in the subway and bargaining for a pair of socks" is "understanding" China. Acujerjer, since he speaks the language, can give a much sharper feedback BUT I dont think just going out there and meeting people is good enough to understand all this. IT's a mixture of macro and micro in my humble opinion. Also, they are complementar and not mutually exclusive.
Focusing too much on either one is in my opinion highly misleading. |
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maodaman
Barker
Joined: Nov 30, 2005
Posts: 183
Location: maotown
Status: Offline
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Dec 16, 2005 - 11:02 AM |
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no I haven't heard of this guy, shame on me.
China has been make many political changes since 2000 that most of foreigners can not see. for example, most of local provincial governors are not 100% handpicked by central gov't. there are some sort of electorial system within the commie party. and pretty soon city majors and governors can be impeached by people's reps (like congressmen) if he/she really screw up or considered as unqualified. I totally support this type of progress, I don't want China to be western style democracy overnight, that will destroy China. one step of a time is the best approach. |
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there is NO god |
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acujerjer
Board Royalty
Joined: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 7770
Location: up your butt and around the corner
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Dec 16, 2005 - 11:06 AM |
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Yeah HC you're right. You're always right.
I read stuff too. I was exaggerating. I read, experience, and talk to people about things, and also come up with my own conclusions on what I have observed. People are like any other animal. If you wanted to study polar bears do you have to study each and every one? No. You take a group and study them as a whole. People are like this too.
But HC, what you typed doesn't fully explain my question about how China can have this dualistic situation with extreme third world and economic power. |
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acujerjer:This is an American, also is everywhere provokes the young woman the dandy. |
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Henry_Chinaski
Board Lord
Joined: Aug 16, 2003
Posts: 5025
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Dec 16, 2005 - 11:14 AM |
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"I don't want China to be western style democracy overnight, that will destroy China. one step of a time is the best approach."
That's actually pretty true, very good point. Seldom understood by most people. Most misinformed people think that suddenly pressing the button "democracy" in the control room will trigger wonderful reforms in every and each country, like magic. How idiotic.
If you see how most democracies are doing in the developing world it is so clear to see that it ain't rosy.
Look at India: it is a paralized democracy that hardly can move forward and make the reforms it needs to compete with China ironically because of the Indian Communist Party.
Venezuela has proven that a populist democracy can be highly dangerous: a good example of a democracy in theory, but due to its lack of support mechanisms, a hardly stable democracy, too prone for foreing (read american) intervention.
Brazil has a president that comes from the armpits of the country but the democratic infrastructure and lack of accountability (and short memory voters) make corruption an endemic disease.
Russia never had the legal and informational systems in place to make it a true democracy. Look at where they are now.
And last but not least, even the US democracy has its flaws: a bi-partidary democracy where each party has only small differences in its ideology and where no other party has the clout to be an alternative to that is highly dangerous.
I think no political system is perfect, and the illusion that democracy is the solution for all problems is of a naivete that borders idiocy.
If there is something that can ruin a country is a crooked democracy that legitimates the worse class of rulers. |
Last edited by Henry_Chinaski on Dec 16, 2005 - 11:17 AM; edited 1 time in total |
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bloodymary
Talker
Joined: May 31, 2004
Posts: 103
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Dec 16, 2005 - 11:16 AM |
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Hehehe
So HC is book-smart and Acujerjer is street-smart . |
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Henry_Chinaski
Board Lord
Joined: Aug 16, 2003
Posts: 5025
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Dec 16, 2005 - 11:20 AM |
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"Yeah HC you're right. You're always right."
And that's my new signature 
"But HC, what you typed doesn't fully explain my question about how China can have this dualistic situation with extreme third world and economic power."
Read the article man. Read the article I mentioned. Has a ton of good info in there. |
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maodaman
Barker
Joined: Nov 30, 2005
Posts: 183
Location: maotown
Status: Offline
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Dec 16, 2005 - 11:20 AM |
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HC, totally agree with you.
bloodymary, acujerjer is an idiot. he can't even prove he is street smart. |
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acujerjer
Board Royalty
Joined: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 7770
Location: up your butt and around the corner
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Dec 16, 2005 - 11:29 AM |
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Bloodymary is my biggest fan. You mess with her, you mess with my whole family!
She is right though. I'm more street HC is more book.
But look, America isn't a true democracy, it is a republic democracy. China will never have a democracy, and I don't care if they do. China has remained the same for a long time. CCP is just another dynasty. They aren't going to give up their power to another party.
My biggest gripe with China is not their political system. It is the belittling of the people. It is the racism and the lack of logic and people treating me like I don;'t know shiit because I am not Chinese, and people blaming everyone else for their problems and refusing to look at themselves. |
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acujerjer:This is an American, also is everywhere provokes the young woman the dandy.
Last edited by acujerjer on Dec 16, 2005 - 11:34 AM; edited 1 time in total |
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acujerjer
Board Royalty
Joined: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 7770
Location: up your butt and around the corner
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Dec 16, 2005 - 11:31 AM |
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Bloodymary is my biggest fan. You mess with her, you mess with my whole family!
She is right though. I'm more street HC is more book.
But look, America isn't a true democracy, it is a republic democracy. China will never have a democracy, and I don;'t care if they do. China has remained the same for a long time. CCP is just another dynasty. They aren't going to give up their power to another party.\
My biggest grip with China is not their political system. It is the belittling of the people. It is the racism and the lack of logic and people treating me like I don;'t know shiit because I am not Chinese, and people blaming everyone else for their problems and refusing to look at themselves. |
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acujerjer:This is an American, also is everywhere provokes the young woman the dandy. |
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