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andyfff
Rocker
Joined: July 03, 2005
Posts: 721
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May 20, 2008 - 09:47 AM |
 
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I would like to know what data they use to make these predictions. What science is out there that allows them to be so incredibly precise. |
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8lrr8
Wonder Wit
Joined: Oct 14, 2004
Posts: 3741
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May 20, 2008 - 10:07 AM |
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speaking of which, is it common to upgrade an earthquake's magntitude rating a week after it's struck? originally the quake was listed as a 7.8'er. now they say it's an 8.0.
is the govt upping the figure to make it look more devastating? |
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andyfff
Rocker
Joined: July 03, 2005
Posts: 721
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May 20, 2008 - 10:23 AM |
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I have heard of them upgrading an earthquake after the fact, after they have had time to review the data.
But here is the real question: Suppose for a minute that they are so able to predict a seismic event like this, pinpoint the exact location and day, if that is true then why weren't they able to predict the original quake? Maybe there are people in a room somewhere analyzing minute movements along faultlines, and maybe they really can predict a quake this accurately. If that is true, why did they not predict the original quake? |
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canuckian
Rocker
Joined: Aug 12, 2007
Posts: 666
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May 20, 2008 - 10:37 AM |
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^ The date set for the BJ olympic correlates highly with Chinese' love for number 8. It's the number symbolizing prosperity. They probably changed the earthquake rating not only to make it look more devastating, but also for their love of number 8. It's all about number 8 for chinese, especially in the year 2008. Just look at their cell #, house #, car license, wedding date, properties are even priced higher on the 8th, 18th, 28th, and 38th Fl. |
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yu888
Board Deity
Joined: Jan 25, 2003
Posts: 19332
Location: ZhongShanParkArea SH
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May 20, 2008 - 10:56 AM |
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probably just rounded up. Japanese and US geological Services pinned it at 7.9 |
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The right to free speech does not grant you freedom from the repercussions of what you say. This and more on my Blog...Random Thoughts about Living in Shanghai...and more |
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sbergman
StreetBeater
Joined: Sep 12, 2007
Posts: 2427
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May 20, 2008 - 11:04 AM |
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Yeah, I had a theory about that at one time but if my theory had held only 3 people would have died in this tragedy.
The USGS has a system for predicting aftershocks based on a mathematical formula that can supposedly pinpoint the location. I don't know if China is using this system.
You can monitor the aftershocks here http://www.iris.edu/seismon/ Let's just hope this particular plate is getting all it's energy out and will settle down for a few years. |
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andyfff
Rocker
Joined: July 03, 2005
Posts: 721
Status: Offline
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May 20, 2008 - 11:54 AM |
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What would be even more interesting would be to see a study showing how often these aftershock predictions came true. I read how many people slept outside last night because they were afraid. So what happens if a day or two passes and there is no aftershock, does that mean the danger has passed? I feel so sorry for those people. Tonight it will rain in Sichuan province, would I sleep outside because of one of these aftershock predictions? Probably not. |
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Andreas
Board Legend
Joined: Feb 27, 2004
Posts: 10085
Location: s/v Waratah
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May 20, 2008 - 12:34 PM |
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| 8lrr8 wrote: |
speaking of which, is it common to upgrade an earthquake's magntitude rating a week after it's struck? originally the quake was listed as a 7.8'er. now they say it's an 8.0.
is the govt upping the figure to make it look more devastating? |
You should see what they do to GDP figures.  |
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8lrr8
Wonder Wit
Joined: Oct 14, 2004
Posts: 3741
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May 20, 2008 - 12:49 PM |
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| Andreas wrote: |
| You should see what they do to GDP figures. |
to that i have no doubt. there doesnt seem to be the same correlation in GDP growth rate to change in electrical power requirements as seen in pretty much all other countries. |
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canuckian
Rocker
Joined: Aug 12, 2007
Posts: 666
Status: Offline
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May 20, 2008 - 01:09 PM |
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| yu888 wrote: |
***EarthQuake update ---GIVE BLOOD***
There is a Shanghai Red Cross community blood drive going on now in conjunction with Shanghai United Family Hospital. Tomorrow, Wednesday May 14, they will be across from the Portman Hotel with the blood mobile.
Please call United Family Health to make an appointment to give., at 5133-1968 The Shanghai Expat community can do a lot more but let us start with the gift of life. |
I'm thinking of giving, but it's been more than a week. Are they still taking blood donations? |
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sbergman
StreetBeater
Joined: Sep 12, 2007
Posts: 2427
Status: Offline
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May 20, 2008 - 01:12 PM |
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A Chinese friend told me today that they had all the blood donations they need for right now and can't store them longterm. Is this true? |
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yu888
Board Deity
Joined: Jan 25, 2003
Posts: 19332
Location: ZhongShanParkArea SH
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May 20, 2008 - 03:14 PM |
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| sbergman wrote: |
| A Chinese friend told me today that they had all the blood donations they need for right now and can't store them longterm. Is this true? |
YES, I called the Shanghai Blood Center this afternoon and confirmed that the current capacity of blood storage is indeed FULL. They are asking for people to wait a couple of weeks and then re-contact them to arrange blood donations. Those making an appointment for blood donation can go to Shanghai Blood Center at No. 1191 on Hongqiao Road, call 6275 8257 (8am-4pm)(Chinese/SHanghainese only) |
_________________
The right to free speech does not grant you freedom from the repercussions of what you say. This and more on my Blog...Random Thoughts about Living in Shanghai...and more |
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sbergman
StreetBeater
Joined: Sep 12, 2007
Posts: 2427
Status: Offline
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May 20, 2008 - 03:32 PM |
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Thanks, yu888! You just allowed me to put off my anxiety for a couple weeks. (I'm a bit of a needle phobe.) |
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hc
Post Roaster
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
Posts: 4545
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May 20, 2008 - 04:07 PM |
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Actually just in the last economist you could see a graph for various nations of GDP/Electricity consumption and you would notice that by no means the relationship is linear.
As it shouldnt be.
Saying the GDP growth ratio cannot be true solely because of electricity consumption ratio ignores much more important factors such as pricing for example, and money supply, and interest rates, and investment levels, and a dozen bunch of other indicators. Also: no country follows the relationship linearly either i.e. maybe there is misreporting but you wouldnt be able to catch it solely through electricity consumption. |
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oh_the_darkness
Fire-eater
Joined: Apr 17, 2008
Posts: 2528
Status: Offline
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May 20, 2008 - 05:24 PM |
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I spoke to my bro on the phone today. He said that there is a huge traffic jam of cars leaving the city in a mass exodus and zero traffic coming in. He said that he wasn't sure if the local govt had told people to get out (no-one has said anything to him) but everyone was leaving.
Another earthquake was expected around the 6.5 mark I think he said. But it would be a shallow one. You know the type, says they'll call you, but never do.
The thing is - the Chinese govt have 'accurately' predicted this earthquake, why couldn't they predict the one last week?
And isn't really causing people to just panic? |
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And you may ask yourself Am I right? ...am I wrong? And you may tell yourself My god!...what have I done? |
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8lrr8
Wonder Wit
Joined: Oct 14, 2004
Posts: 3741
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May 20, 2008 - 05:37 PM |
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| hc wrote: |
| Actually just in the last economist you could see a graph for various nations of GDP/Electricity consumption and you would notice that by no means the relationship is linear. |
a correlation doesnt have to be linear.
| hc wrote: |
| Saying the GDP growth ratio cannot be true solely because of electricity consumption ratio ignores much more important factors such as pricing for example, and money supply, and interest rates, and investment levels, and a dozen bunch of other indicators. Also: no country follows the relationship linearly either i.e. maybe there is misreporting but you wouldnt be able to catch it solely through electricity consumption. |
good pt. however i wonder if the author accounted for these factors, and then along w/ electrical consumption, to conclude (correctly or not) china's been inflating their GDP growth rate. unfortunately i dont remember what site i read the article on. |
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hc
Post Roaster
Joined: Apr 04, 2007
Posts: 4545
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May 20, 2008 - 05:47 PM |
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tomnoddy_uk
Wonder Wit
Joined: Mar 14, 2006
Posts: 3562
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May 20, 2008 - 06:37 PM |
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The fact that Sichuan has had 74 earthquakes following the first 7.5-8 one (there was actually one 10 days prior to the 12th May measuring 4.7) suggests it is not rocket science that there are going to be more aftershocks - though i would guess they would become less frequent as the days go past (3, 3 and 2 for the past three days compared with 32 on the 12th and 12 the day after).
Predicting the magnitude on the other hand, I have no idea about.
The map and link posted by sbergman I found most interesting. I don't know how Indonesia has had less disasters than it has already. |
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Not everyone who chased the zebra caught it, but he who caught it, chased it. |
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findus
Fire-eater
Joined: Feb 03, 2004
Posts: 2848
Status: Offline
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May 20, 2008 - 09:51 PM |
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| andyfff wrote: |
| I would like to know what data they use to make these predictions. What science is out there that allows them to be so incredibly precise. |
Statistical odds, probably. |
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CarolKChen
Newbie
Joined: Apr 25, 2007
Posts: 1
Status: Offline
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 Posted:
May 21, 2008 - 12:40 AM |
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| Post subject: Monday May 26 Charity Dinner & Auction |
OPERATION SICHUAN RELIEF, May 26, Westin Hotel, Shanghai
The largest foreign community in Shanghai fund raising activity. Would LOVE to have you and your company involved with table purchase OR/AND live or silent auction. Please relay our apologies for the short notice - as per government regulations we are limited to a 2 week window only for fund raising events of this type and large scale. NOT TO BE MISSED. Individual seat buyers also welcome at 1000rmb per person. Corporate sponsor tables are 20-50K also prefered. ALL proceeds go to charity as all the agencies are volunteering their time and efforts, and Westin is donating ballroom. Red Cross will be on site to receive final cheque. Please contact jcheung@inthecutent.com, WE NEED YOUR SUPPORT from the foreign community. |
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kumlong
PopStar
Joined: Oct 18, 2007
Posts: 999
Location: puxi
Status: Offline
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May 21, 2008 - 09:48 AM |
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oh_the_darkness
Fire-eater
Joined: Apr 17, 2008
Posts: 2528
Status: Offline
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May 21, 2008 - 09:50 AM |
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Which is why they have pandas in Sichuan.
They absolutely know everything about earthquakes. |
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And you may ask yourself Am I right? ...am I wrong? And you may tell yourself My god!...what have I done? |
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kumlong
PopStar
Joined: Oct 18, 2007
Posts: 999
Location: puxi
Status: Offline
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May 21, 2008 - 10:16 AM |
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that is why they have zoos in most cities |
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tomnoddy_uk
Wonder Wit
Joined: Mar 14, 2006
Posts: 3562
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May 21, 2008 - 11:27 AM |
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| Post subject: Don't equate one-child policy with quake grief |
Two quite poorly written articles, but I thought posed an interesting question.
Don't equate one-child policy with quake grief
Created: 2008-5-21
Author:Wang Yong, Shanghai Daily
IF you have only one child and he or she dies, you grieve.
If you have two children and only one dies, you grieve less.
If you have three children and only one dies, you grieve even less.
If you have three children and all die, sorry, it's not my business to think of it.
Such is the logic of the Los Angeles Times, CNN, The Associated Press, The Independent and many other major Western media.
Sloppiness haunts them as their reporters race to blame China's family planning policy for having "doubled the agony'' of parents who have lost their only children in the Sichuan earthquake.
Here are their headlines:
"Parents' losses compounded by China's one-child policy'' ?? CNN, May 15.
"One-child policy adds to the grief of China quake'' - Los Angeles Times, May 15.
"The only ones: how China's single-child policy doubled the agony of parents'' - The Independent, May 15.
"China's one-child policy causes extra pain'' - The Associated Press, May 16.
See how CNN does it. To do CNN justice, here is a transcript of the first few graphs in which CNN reporter Kyung Lah made his key points. The rest of his article is irrelevant to his conclusion.
Sichuan, China (CNN) - Li Yunxia wipes away tears as rescue crews dig through the ruins of a kindergarten class that has buried her only child - a 5-year-old boy. Other parents wail as soldiers in blue masks trudge through the mud, hauling bodies from the rubble on stretchers.
"Children were screaming, but I couldn't hear my son's voice,'' she says, sobbing. This grim ritual repeated itself Thursday across southwestern China, as thousands of mothers and fathers await news about their sons and daughters.
The death toll from Monday's massive earthquake could be as high as 50,000, according to state-run media.
The grief is compounded in many cases by a Chinese policy that limits most couples to one child, a measure meant to control explosive population growth.
As a result of the one-child policy, the quake - already responsible for at least 15,000 deaths - is producing another tragic aftershock: Not only must thousands of parents suddenly cope with the loss of a child, but many must cope with the loss of their only child.
My questions:
1. How can you prove that the grief of losing one's only child is stronger than that of losing one of one's children? A life is a life. All lives are equal.
2. Isn't this a typical one-source story? And did you ask Li whether her pain would be any less if she had two children or more? No, you didn't.
3. Suppose China allowed its people to have as many children as they wanted, and Li and her likes all had 10 children each. If all the 10 children died in the earthquake - which was very likely given its magnitude - what would you say? Would she grieve less than now?
See how The Independent does it. The reporter, Clifford Coonan, wrote: "Travelling through Sichuan one is struck by the numbers of boys on the streets, almost as if the girls have been hidden. The ("one-child'') policy has led to boy children being preferred over girls and is blamed for an alarming rise in the male-to-female ratio.''
My questions:
1. Can you conclude that the "one-child'' policy has led to more boys just from what you saw on the streets of Sichuan? What would you say if you see Shanghai streets dominated by women?
2. Your argument here - "the policy has led to boy children being preferred over girls'' - contradicts your later statement - "As in many developing countries, farmers prize sons because they believe they are better able to provide for the family ... Prejudices run deep.''
Similar examples of sloppy journalism abound in the Los Angeles Times and AP reports. You're welcome to criticize China in a rational way. But it's incorrect, insensible and inhuman to say the family planning has compounded the grief of mothers and fathers in the earthquake.
When China grows fast and consumes a lot, you call it a population menace. When China reduces the burden of the earth, you call it a human rights violation.
Is it human just to think of human rights when the rights of the earth are at risk? At any rate, China reduces its own population for growth, while many Western countries sent their population to colonies for growth at the beginning of their road to "prosperity.''
Here's the full cnn article to which the above is referring.
Parents' losses compounded by China's one-child policy
From Kyung Lah
CNN
SICHUAN, China (CNN) -- Li Yunxia wipes away tears as rescue crews dig through the ruins of a kindergarten class that has buried her only child -- a 5-year-old boy.
China's one-child policy magnifies the loss parents are feeling after learning their child died in the earthquake.
more photos » Other parents wail as soldiers in blue masks trudge through the mud, hauling bodies from the rubble on stretchers.
"Children were screaming, but I couldn't hear my son's voice," she says, sobbing.
This grim ritual repeated itself Thursday across southwestern China, as thousands of mothers and fathers await news about their sons and daughters. Watch parents' anguished vigil »
The death toll from Monday's massive earthquake could be as high as 50,000, according to state-run media. Map »
The grief is compounded in many cases by a Chinese policy that limits most couples to one child, a measure meant to control explosive population growth.
As a result of the one-child policy, the quake -- already responsible for at least 15,000 deaths -- is producing another tragic aftershock:
Not only must thousands of parents suddenly cope with the loss of a child, but many must cope with the loss of their only child.
China's population minister recently praised the one-child rule, which dates to 1979, saying it has prevented 400 million children from being born.
Some wealthy families ignore the order, have more children and pay a $1,000 fine. In rural areas -- like earthquake-devastated Sichuan province -- families can petition for an additional child, but there's no guarantee the authorities will approve the request -- they usually don't.
That reality has cast parents like Li into an agonizing limbo -- waiting to discover whether their only child is alive or dead.
Thousands of children were in class when the temblor hit Monday afternoon. Many of their schools collapsed on top of them.
In Dujiangyan City, more than 300 students were feared dead when Juyuan Middle School collapsed with 900 students inside. A similar number died at the city's Xiang'e Middle School. See images and video from the quake zone »
Now parents cluster outside collapsed school buildings, held back by soldiers in some cases as rescue crews search for signs of life.
"Which grade are you in?" a rescuer asks a trapped child in Beichuan County.
"Grade 2," comes the answer.
"Hang on for a while," he says. "We are figuring out ways to rescue you." Watch children rescued from the rubble »
The child is pulled from the rubble a short time later.
For every child saved, though, many more are lost.
Many are missing at a middle school in the city of Qingchuan. The scene is devastating at Juyuan Middle School, where sorrow seems endless. See photos of rescue efforts »
"There were screaming parents, and as the bodies would come out they were trying to identify whether it was their child or not," said Jamil Anderlini of London's Financial Times. "And once they -- the parents -- realized it was their child, obviously they collapsed in grief." |
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Not everyone who chased the zebra caught it, but he who caught it, chased it. |
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Cambronne
Post Roaster
Joined: Feb 23, 2008
Posts: 4217
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May 21, 2008 - 11:38 AM |
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This nonsense about losing an only child vs. one of many is really sad, but typical of Western brainwashing. Nothing good can be said about China, unless it is about backwards traditions coming from Confucianism for example, the resurgence of which can only bring China further down. Some articles I have read are much more outrageous that this. Think French "journalist" Pascale Nivelle. |
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