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black_bird
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Joined: Mar 06, 2008
Posts: 594
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 Posted:
May 21, 2008 - 10:40 PM |
 
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| Post subject: tangshan earthquake 1976 retrospect report |
the last major earthquake that killed around 80,000 -240,000 people only happened 30 years ago in china, the tangshan earthquake happened in 1976. things were much worse than. for my parents generation, it was like yesterday.
this report is designed as a retrospective study of tangshan 1976, the risk management earthquake forecasting model is said to be completed in 2007 for China Earthquake Administration's Institute of Engineering Mechanics (IEM). i wonder if it did predict anything that might happen in 2008 of wenchuan?
i read the following in this report:
china has the largest concentration of earthquake risk out of any countries in the world.
http://www.rms.com/Publications/1976Tangshan.pdf
that is quite a worry. consider the population concentration in china. (somehow i thought earthquake happens more often in small islands like japan. that doesn't look true?) If this is true shouldn't all the new buildings in the future, be regulated to be built to withstand earthquakes of magnitude 7?? at least hospitals and schools!!! (I think japan does just that to their residential blocks. This time around it’s the first time to have an international/japanese team working on rescuring civilians. They are highly experienced. Hu Jin Tao should go japan again and try to learn from them about earthquakes)
that looks pretty unlikely as people are into shortterm profit. but surely the government is willing to make it as a part of the law for sustainable buildings? If it has a long term interest on people's welfare and wants to minimise natural disaster induced massive economic lost?
And the 3 gorges dam ---world's largest dam-- is only designed to withstand earthquakes of magnitude 7. --- true risk of population wipe-out if anything goes wrong. this time in fact we are very very lucky.
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Tang shan earthquake:
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source: BBC----
1976: Chinese earthquake kills hundreds of thousands
Hundreds of thousands of people are feared dead following an 8.3 magnitude earthquake in China.
The quake has virtually destroyed the city of Tangshan, north-east of Beijing, and Western sources believe the death toll may be much higher than the official figure of 240,000. Some believe the figure is more like 750,000.
The Hong Kong Royal Observatory reports the earthquake was intense although speculation of the magnitude of the quake ranges from 6.3 to 8.3.
Around 2,000 people are believed to have died when the quake devastated the city's biggest hospital, according to sources quoting Chinese officials.
Any grave natural disaster can be overcome with the guidance of Chairman Mao.
Spokesman for the Red Flag journal
It is feared that many miners are buried alive in coal works in the industrial city, which has a total population of 1.6m.
Diplomatic observers say that up to 80,000 people died in the first shock of the natural disaster.
Up to 164,000 people have been severely injured, according to initial reports from the city.
Tangshan was at the epicentre of the earthquake, although it badly damaged Tientsin. Tremors were also felt in Beijing, where residents were urged to live in the streets and keep to open spaces as it is not thought to be safe to return to their homes in the city.
The force of the quake has been so strong that people are reported to have been thrown into the air after roads, bridges, railway stations, homes and factories were completely destroyed.
The quake has also knocked out power throughout the city, making rescue efforts difficult.
When the earthquake struck Tangshan at 0342 local time, more than a million people lay sleeping. The entire earthquake reportedly lasted approximately 14 to 16 seconds. It was followed by a 7.1 magnitude aftershock.
Survivors have been digging through debris to answer the calls for help as well as find missing relatives.
There is a deep-seated peasant belief that the "Year of the Dragon" - which happens every 12 years - augurs ill.
The survivors of the Tangshan quake are living in tents and are expected to be moved to winter shelters, the New China news agency has reported. Aircraft and lorries have been taking large quantities of relief supplies to help the relief effort.
The authorities later hope to move people to simple houses, which can withstand tremors and are warm and rainproof before winter sets in.
Chinese officials have rejected any offers of help from the outside world, saying that survivors have enough to eat and wear and there are sufficient medical supplies and doctors in the city.
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http://caltecheerl.library.caltech.edu/353/01/Tangshan/Volume3_Chapter _6.pdf
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maneo
Rocker
Joined: May 12, 2007
Posts: 760
Location: in a gadda vida
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| Posted:
May 23, 2008 - 09:32 AM |
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Thanks for finding these interesting links.
Conflicting stories about "warnings" prior to the Tangshan quake.
From wikipedia :
More than half a month before the earthquake struck, Wang Chengmin (汪成民) of the State Seismological Bureau (SSB) Analysis and Prediction Department had already concluded that the Tangshan region would be struck by a significant earthquake between July 22, 1976 to August 5, 1976.
Source: Zschau, Jochen. Küppers, Andreas N. (2003). Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction. ISBN 3540679626
http://en.{WeeKeePeeDeeYa DOT org}/wiki/1976_Tangshan_earthquake
However, the Risk Management Systems (rms.com) retrospective above states, "there was no short-term or imminent prediction issued prior to the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake."
The 2 sources only seem to agree that water levels in wells changed abruptly within a day before the quake.
Interestingly the RMS paper also mentioned the SSB:
"The Chinese State Seismological Bureau (SSB), currently the China Earthquake Administration (CEA), was given the task to train the masses (reportedly 100,000 seismic amateurs) to recognize the warnings
associated with the imminent arrival of a seismic event (e.g., ground noises, unusual animal behavior, abrupt well water changes)." |
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black_bird
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Joined: Mar 06, 2008
Posts: 594
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| Posted:
May 24, 2008 - 05:38 AM |
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