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ckfactor
Talker
Joined: Feb 12, 2008
Posts: 97
Status: Offline
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 Posted:
Sep 03, 2008 - 04:16 PM |
 
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| Post subject: The international currency game |
Over the last few years I have lived in 3 countries.
China, Australia, and America
Yet the situation with the currency is strange to me.
1 US dollar = 6.84 RMB
Now from my experience when the AUD was .95 cents to a dollar and the Canadian dollar was slightly stronger then the US dollar.
1 US dollar = less RMB
Yet the US dollar has recently strengthen back to 1.21 AUD per 1 US dollar.
Now, why isn't the US dollar strengthen against the RMB. When I was in Australia and the US dollar was getting 1.30 AUD, you could around 7.75 RMB per US dollar.
From my experience weaker AUD = more RMB for US dollar. Or Stronger USD to RMB = cheaper to buy more AUD with RMB
Anything new been happening with the China Currency? Or any one that can explain this. |
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CoffeeHawk_0
Board Buddha
Joined: July 14, 2005
Posts: 14456
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Sep 08, 2008 - 05:25 PM |
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they're just playing a joke on you |
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Adimnistrator
Rocker
Joined: July 20, 2007
Posts: 683
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 05:34 PM |
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Judaeo-Masonic conspiracy |
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Barack Obama: young, handsome and suntanned.
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mat
Board Royalty
Joined: Apr 26, 2004
Posts: 6978
Location: Loooooooooooose!
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 05:46 PM |
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The RMB is appreciating also. They have lifted it from being fully tied to the USD to being a little bit floating. They adjust it slightly every day, usually upwards. If it was fully floated, it would probably be worth nearly double what it is now. |
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Adimnistrator
Rocker
Joined: July 20, 2007
Posts: 683
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 05:53 PM |
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| If it was fully floated, it would probably be worth nearly double what it is now. |
I doubt that. They are "printing" so much new money in Beijing...hence the huge inflation. Also China export would be 90% or more down. Already now tens of thousands companies closed... |
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Barack Obama: young, handsome and suntanned.
(Silvio Berlusconi) |
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RussianBear
Ranter
Joined: June 25, 2008
Posts: 541
Location: Qingdao
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 06:04 PM |
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RMB never been in free floating due 20 last years, and it still under control. That rise because American brother very seriosly say about antydemping dutys to China export. So RMB slow, slow , and absolutly controlled rising. Chinese - are reasonable people.
Momlover: Did you heard about big purchase of CocaCola in China ? Is it mean the market still grown ? |
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Nathalie25
Board Legend
Joined: Aug 24, 2004
Posts: 10387
Location: Shanghai
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Sep 08, 2008 - 06:06 PM |
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To Exchange your foreign currency you can try to get started from US Dollar to Another foreign countries' currency and then try to exchange from another countries' currency to Chinese Rmb and from all those changeover, you can get some small money from its movement~~~~~
100 Us dollars = ? = 762 rmb |
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功高盖主，必有祸出。人生是人类生命中内心和万般经历的真实写照。 http:/
Last edited by Nathalie25 on Sep 08, 2008 - 06:08 PM; edited 1 time in total |
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tomnoddy_uk
Fire-eater
Joined: Mar 14, 2006
Posts: 2912
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Sep 08, 2008 - 06:06 PM |
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not true. m2 is running very marginally higher (17.3%) than its 2003-07 average. inflation is linked to food (34% of the cpi) and it has been coming down since its feb peak and shall continue to do so.
in addition, as with all world/us slowdowns since ww2, china's export growth may half, but certainly not be down as you suggest. why? consumers trade down in times of recession/slowing growth and the cheap stuff is made over here. |
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"Eight minutes past the hour here in Belgium - and presumably eight minutes past the hour everywhere in the world." Murray Walker |
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tomnoddy_uk
Fire-eater
Joined: Mar 14, 2006
Posts: 2912
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Sep 08, 2008 - 06:07 PM |
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that was response to adim |
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"Eight minutes past the hour here in Belgium - and presumably eight minutes past the hour everywhere in the world." Murray Walker |
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Nathalie25
Board Legend
Joined: Aug 24, 2004
Posts: 10387
Location: Shanghai
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Sep 08, 2008 - 06:10 PM |
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To Exchange your foreign currency you can try to get started from US Dollar to Another foreign countries' currency and then try to exchange from another countries' currency to Chinese Rmb and from all those changeover, you can get some small money from its movement~~~~~
100 Us dollars = ? = 762 rmb |
_________________
功高盖主，必有祸出。人生是人类生命中内心和万般经历的真实写照。 http:/ |
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Adimnistrator
Rocker
Joined: July 20, 2007
Posts: 683
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 06:24 PM |
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| Quote: |
| m2 is running very marginally higher (17.3%) than its 2003-07 average |
Well the thing is the M2 is published by you_know_whom, so nobody knows the truth.
| Quote: |
| china's export growth may half, but certainly not be down as you suggest |
Well I have info from first hand - factories. And the factories are not closing because of lower demand but because they became too expensive.
If they theoretically would start free float, there would be huge demand for RMB till some crazy tipping point then it would go back then back etc. It would cause very unstable enviroment. I am not an economist, just common sense... |
_________________
Barack Obama: young, handsome and suntanned.
(Silvio Berlusconi) |
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MoonOverMiami
Raver
Joined: Jan 07, 2008
Posts: 465
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Sep 08, 2008 - 06:50 PM |
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Wish I didn't buy a bunch of AUD back in June for the money market. Bought it at 1.04 AUD/USD...now its 1.21. Oi! From what I have read, the Australian economy is weakening fast so I doubt its going back to 1.04 anytime soon. Time to trade it back to USD and take the hit now. Oi!
Our European customers are now wanting to pay for their goods using Euro. Its already weakened 10% against the USD and RMB since July and not sure how much more it will drop in the near future. Never accepted Euro before, doubt we'll start now. |
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"One who falls asleep with an itchy backside, will wake up with smelly fingers..." |
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tomnoddy_uk
Fire-eater
Joined: Mar 14, 2006
Posts: 2912
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Sep 08, 2008 - 06:51 PM |
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a) which makes your statement void just as much as mine. global inflation is predominantly been about food. as China has a higher share of food in the cpi than most western countries, it comes down further. farmers responses: look at wheat production for this year.
what about all the factories that are opening? prd is moving from old industries to new industries. just because some factories are closing doesn't mean exports are down 90%. Even US Imports from China are still positive. |
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"Eight minutes past the hour here in Belgium - and presumably eight minutes past the hour everywhere in the world." Murray Walker |
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Adimnistrator
Rocker
Joined: July 20, 2007
Posts: 683
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 07:04 PM |
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| doesn't mean exports are down 90% |
I said if RMB would appreicate to 3.4, as Mat wrote, then this would happen. |
_________________
Barack Obama: young, handsome and suntanned.
(Silvio Berlusconi) |
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tomnoddy_uk
Fire-eater
Joined: Mar 14, 2006
Posts: 2912
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Sep 08, 2008 - 07:30 PM |
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you didn't say that, but you have now.
3.4? maybe by 2020 |
_________________
"Eight minutes past the hour here in Belgium - and presumably eight minutes past the hour everywhere in the world." Murray Walker |
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Adimnistrator
Rocker
Joined: July 20, 2007
Posts: 683
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 07:56 PM |
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| tomnoddy_uk wrote: |
you didn't say that, but you have now.
3.4? maybe by 2020 |
Read my post in this thread "Posted: Sep 08, 2008 - 05:53 PM"
I would especially like to point out word WOULD
WWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUULLLLLLLLLLLLLLDDDDDDDDDD |
_________________
Barack Obama: young, handsome and suntanned.
(Silvio Berlusconi) |
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hautumncloud
LoopKicker
Joined: Nov 04, 2006
Posts: 912
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| Posted:
Sep 08, 2008 - 08:27 PM |
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| Post subject: Re: The international currency game |
| ckfactor wrote: |
Now from my experience when the AUD was .95 cents to a dollar and the Canadian dollar was slightly stronger then the US dollar.
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CDN is rarely stronger than the USD except a brief period of time for a few days a few months ago. It was almost at par within a few 0.0XX and now it is about CDN 1 to USD0.95. |
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howarda
Talker
Joined: Sep 21, 2005
Posts: 93
Location: Shanghai
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 08:48 PM |
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all I know is I have gotten about a 15% pay rise lately since the AUD has receded against the RMB  Think ppl who send money back to UK are in a similar situation.
What I am curious about though is why anyone in Australia would have let ckfactor in the country let alone live there? |
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OZDave
Barker
Joined: July 04, 2008
Posts: 134
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 08:59 PM |
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It's been a very volatile 6 months (especially the last 6 weeks or so).
Anyone offering extended trading terms or mid-long term fixed pricing in forex is probably not sleeping so well at the moment.
Yay for earning rmb. |
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Frankenstein
Seeker
Joined: Aug 02, 2007
Posts: 47
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 09:08 PM |
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It's obvious that ckfactor is just one of those people who add enormously to the gaiety of nations.
Certainly his posts have evinced some very strong reactions on this forum, especially because they are so contradictory and, um, pointless! |
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OZDave
Barker
Joined: July 04, 2008
Posts: 134
Status: Offline
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Sep 08, 2008 - 09:10 PM |
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On another thought- a local branch of an international bank here recently advised me to take out aud debt and convert to hkd loans to take advantage of lower interest rates in hk.
I asked- but what about the huge downside on the inflated aud devaluing and was told "who knows what will happen" and also that "large repayments would be discouraged" as they were "trying to build their loan business and want customers to keep a minimum loan balance in forex"...
So I guess that meant stuff you customer- we want you to get stuck so we can earn more off you; interest and a truckload in forex losses (note the aud has gone down 20% against the hkd in only 8 weeks or so)!
I'm sure this is standard practice, but was surprised to hear her say it to my face! |
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mat
Board Royalty
Joined: Apr 26, 2004
Posts: 6978
Location: Loooooooooooose!
Status: Offline
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Sep 09, 2008 - 10:22 AM |
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We just got a home loan for a house purchased in Aus here in China. CommBank, HSBC and ANZ can do it.
We borrowed HKD, interest rate is 3.2%. Yeah, not as beneficial as it was, but interest repayments are still 1/2 what it would be if we'd borrowed AUD. |
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www.justbeer.cn Get Loooooooose! |
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tomnoddy_uk
Fire-eater
Joined: Mar 14, 2006
Posts: 2912
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Sep 09, 2008 - 11:40 AM |
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| Adimnistrator wrote: |
| tomnoddy_uk wrote: |
you didn't say that, but you have now.
3.4? maybe by 2020 |
Read my post in this thread "Posted: Sep 08, 2008 - 05:53 PM"
I would especially like to point out word WOULD
WWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUULLLLLLLLLLLLLLDDDDDDDDDD |
hehe, bu hao yisi, apologies |
_________________
"Eight minutes past the hour here in Belgium - and presumably eight minutes past the hour everywhere in the world." Murray Walker |
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OZDave
Barker
Joined: July 04, 2008
Posts: 134
Status: Offline
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Sep 09, 2008 - 01:06 PM |
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I didn't know commbank were active here... nice to know.
I see that Austrade is doing something on that topic soon; i might check it out. |
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