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sinned69
SuperStar
Joined: Sep 01, 2004
Posts: 1512
Location: China, Middle East, Asia Pacific
Status: Offline
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Sep 05, 2008 - 12:06 AM |
 
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| Post subject: Is China’s Population Really 1.3 Billion? |
Sept. 1 - The population figure promoted for China that is accepted by the international community and acknowledged by Beijing is 1.3 billion.
This figure has been promoted for some years now. In assessing the reliability of this statistic, we need to look at other factors. The only way Beijing can calculate for this figure accurately is by undertaking a national population census. The last one was undertaken was in 2000/2001. This census was abandoned halfway through as the census takers could not obtain accurate responses, mainly because of distrust as to the actual purpose of the poll.
China’s population therefore continues to be based on the last complete census carried out in the country, which was 19 years ago in 1988/89. The 1.3 billion figure then, as far as we can ascertain, dates back from this census.
We will take an educated guess as to the likely trend that has happened since then. Taking the annual average global population growth figure of about 2.2 to 2.3 percent over a period of 19 years, this may add about 200-300 million Chinese. However, we are unsure how the annual death rate – statistics of which seem to not be available– would affect this estimation. The population growth for countries like Kenya and Philippines is about 4.3 percent, and for most developed countries in Europe about 1.4 percent.
Since 1976, China has adopted a one child policy. Traditionally, the Chinese rural population relies on parents supported by many children to ensure that the family can survive and prosper. Although in recent years, this one child policy has been relaxed in certain areas, it is still in force by legislation in China. This means that parents in rural areas who have more than one child can only legally register the first one. This creates a vast number of unregistered children, who have no legal registration or what is known as a hukou and cannot receive state benefits.
The majority of the illegal migrant population in China’s major cities are known to be unregistered, hence the mobile phone numbers spray painted around cities by dubious agencies and individuals that offer fake documentation to illegal migrants.Although no actual statistics exist, we could surmise a guess and estimate that unregistered post-1976 children amount to as much as 200 - 300 million people.
Therefore if you take the population figure of 1.3 billion, add in the growth since the last full census, plus the possible additional figures for unregistered children - then it could be possible that the population for China today could be anything between 1.8 to 2 billion people.
We would like to emphasize that these figures are from various personal observations and have not been formally evaluated. We accept that some of the factors above may be inaccurate. However, the main point here is that nobody, least of all the Chinese government, knows what the real population of China is today which is most probably higher than the published figure of 1.3 billion.
We are grateful to Bob Shead for bringing the question of China population to our attention and would welcome additional comments concerning this issue on these pages.
source: china-b r i e f i n g
Comment: This is a reminder not to take anything here for granted or as fact. remember everything in china just for looking -beware the smoke and mirrors! |
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qing nin shao deng
Last edited by sinned69 on Sep 05, 2008 - 10:09 AM; edited 1 time in total |
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Cambronne
Veejay
Joined: Feb 23, 2008
Posts: 2013
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Sep 05, 2008 - 08:22 AM |
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You seem to imply that either the Chinese government are too stupid to count their own people or that they lie. Pathetic. You could write similar stories of most countries (with less impressive figures of course). If the Chinese government had a better grip of this, we would all be whining about Big Brother, the Mad Red Dictators etc. |
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Countless people will hate the new world order and will die protesting against it. |
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Cambronne
Veejay
Joined: Feb 23, 2008
Posts: 2013
Status: Offline
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Sep 05, 2008 - 08:23 AM |
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And who is this Bob Shead?
iiiiiiiii?
ok I know |
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Countless people will hate the new world order and will die protesting against it. |
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still_here
Reacher
Joined: May 29, 2007
Posts: 370
Location: Century Park Area
Status: Offline
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Sep 05, 2008 - 09:31 AM |
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| Cambronne wrote: |
| You seem to imply that either the Chinese government are too stupid to count their own people or that they lie. Pathetic. You could write similar stories of most countries (with less impressive figures of course). If the Chinese government had a better grip of this, we would all be whining about Big Brother, the Mad Red Dictators etc. |
Wth do u mean by imply? Go over the post again. Can't get it? Go over it again.
To hell with the source and to hell with any conjecture, simply analyze the points raised as to why the figure might not be accurate.
I will not, simply because i CANNOT say what the actual figure would be like but it sure as hell ain't going to stay at 1.3 bn over a period of 19 years. I had thought about it before but neither bothered to inquire further nor had any sources which could be termed reliable. |
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sinned69
SuperStar
Joined: Sep 01, 2004
Posts: 1512
Location: China, Middle East, Asia Pacific
Status: Offline
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Sep 05, 2008 - 10:15 AM |
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| You seem to imply that either the Chinese government are too stupid to count their own people or that they lie. Pathetic. You could write similar stories of most countries (with less impressive figures of course). If the Chinese government had a better grip of this, we would all be whining about Big Brother, the Mad Red Dictators etc. |
get over yourself, read the article again, maybe a third time then you might just get it! oh and i didn't write the article. if you actually read and understand the content you will find that the PRC CCP tried to undertake a census but had to abandon it midway due the "big brother" connotations that the local population felt at the time. however it should be noted that many countries in the developed world (ie so called free world) also undertake regular censuses to get a reasonable sense of statistical information about their populations, and few people seem to object. |
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qing nin shao deng |
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still_here
Reacher
Joined: May 29, 2007
Posts: 370
Location: Century Park Area
Status: Offline
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Sep 05, 2008 - 11:58 AM |
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/\ not only free world. Take the next door neighbour India for example. Though the census figures released by the authorities are far from accurate, they atleast tend to show which direction it is going (up always btw  ) and atleast some semblence of rationality in terms of percentage increases over any given time frame. |
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cosmoandme
Reacher
Joined: Mar 19, 2007
Posts: 321
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Sep 05, 2008 - 02:53 PM |
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| sinned69 wrote: |
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You seem to imply that either the Chinese government are too stupid to count their own people or that they lie.
 
Pathetic. You could write similar stories of most countries (with less impressive figures of course). |
Yes, but the number changes
get over yourself, read the article again, maybe a third time then you might just get it! oh and i didn't write the article. if you actually read and understand the content you will find that the PRC CCP tried to undertake a census but had to abandon it midway due the "big brother" connotations that the local population felt at the time. however it should be noted that many countries in the developed world (ie so called free world) also undertake regular censuses to get a reasonable sense of statistical information about their populations, and few people seem to object. |
Few addiitons if I may: there people claiming that their kids are nieces and nephews... in small cities/villages, people move from village to village to have more kids...
One child policy doesn't apply to ALL. Not to minorities, one child couples, business people, mistresses...
It's been 1.3 for a while.................. |
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black_bird
Ranter
Joined: Mar 06, 2008
Posts: 594
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Sep 05, 2008 - 05:32 PM |
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'The only way Beijing can calculate for this figure accurately is by undertaking a national population census. '
no far more than 1.3 b. think about the rural area thats not been accounted for, people there have multiple kids to get more boys. |
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Blackbird fly,Into the light of the dark black night. - The BEATLES =) |
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Q
Reacher
Joined: Sep 14, 2003
Posts: 209
Location: 请给我一瓶冰啤酒
Status: Offline
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Sep 05, 2008 - 06:58 PM |
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Seemed to be about 1.6b or so on the metro while on my way home tonight...... |
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And this is kinda just the narrow-minded, dismissive, middle-aged fu**er I've turned into. Pity is what you should have... ~ Henry Rollins |
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CoffeeHawk_0
Board Buddha
Joined: July 14, 2005
Posts: 14456
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Sep 05, 2008 - 08:10 PM |
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^it was closer to 1.59b actually |
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UndrUrSkin
Raver
Joined: Aug 26, 2008
Posts: 494
Location: between your sandy cheeks and crab-filled pineapple
Status: Offline
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Sep 05, 2008 - 08:20 PM |
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1,300,000,001 |
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You're an Ass-Half, it takes 2 of you to make an Ass-wHole |
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Q
Reacher
Joined: Sep 14, 2003
Posts: 209
Location: 请给我一瓶冰啤酒
Status: Offline
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Sep 05, 2008 - 08:27 PM |
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Yet the majority walk down the street as if there was only 1!  |
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And this is kinda just the narrow-minded, dismissive, middle-aged fu**er I've turned into. Pity is what you should have... ~ Henry Rollins |
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