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kamote
Reacher
Joined: May 21, 2005
Posts: 358
Location: shanghai
Status: Offline
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 Posted:
Sep 16, 2008 - 10:16 PM |
 
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| Post subject: Market Crisis |
Anybody feeling the crisis?
AIG is going bankrupt.
Most of the (financial) markets are going down.
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something nice... |
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underh20
Shanghai Royalty
Joined: Sep 27, 2006
Posts: 9670
Location: EOA Seminar
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Sep 16, 2008 - 10:21 PM |
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^ And you did not see this coming, Einstein? |
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بارك الله ، بارك الله |
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Andreas
Board Royalty
Joined: Feb 27, 2004
Posts: 6332
Location: 31 N 121 E
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Sep 16, 2008 - 10:29 PM |
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Anybody who did not get out of the markets months ago, has shown bad judgement. I cashed in about a year ago, and mainly stayed in cash and some land and commodities. I think in a few months we will have some great buying opportunities. |
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If it has tits, tires, or a transom, there's gonna be issues! |
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hammerforlife
Fire-eater
Joined: May 24, 2004
Posts: 2701
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Sep 16, 2008 - 10:32 PM |
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Yep the "no shit Sherlock award' goes to kamote.
And don't forget the sequel which is "recession coming to a Chinese factory near you" next year.
Anyone that doesn't see the link between the US economic troubles and the Chinese economy is living in a dream world. |
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Mr Totomolo
Rocker
Joined: June 21, 2008
Posts: 691
Location: Shanghai & Taipei
Status: Offline
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Sep 16, 2008 - 10:42 PM |
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 yes, Hammer...
agree with you... the great theory of "decoupling"...Another bait to fcuk clueless investors..
Today SSE was down another 4.6%...I am going to win my bet of 1000 points before Xmas...
For commodities: humm..today the oil barrel is at 93$...If there is crisis, commodities won't be very useful...to make things to sell to who ??
Even gold is going down.
How was the song of New Order ?? the final countdown ?  |
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hammerforlife
Fire-eater
Joined: May 24, 2004
Posts: 2701
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Sep 16, 2008 - 10:56 PM |
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| Mr Totomolo wrote: |
yes, Hammer...
agree with you... the great theory of "decoupling"...Another bait to fcuk clueless investors..: |
Agree 100%. Decoupling will stand up to as much scrutiny as a Tongren Lu virgin.
| Mr Totomolo wrote: |
| How was the song of New Order ?? the final countdown ? |
Europe surely. Or was that different song? |
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Andreas
Board Royalty
Joined: Feb 27, 2004
Posts: 6332
Location: 31 N 121 E
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Sep 16, 2008 - 10:59 PM |
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All these investment bankers have been trading in hot air for years. It had to go wrong. A well needed correction of overheated markets, and hopefully a good shakeout. |
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If it has tits, tires, or a transom, there's gonna be issues! |
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RussianBear
Ranter
Joined: June 25, 2008
Posts: 533
Status: Offline
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Sep 16, 2008 - 11:28 PM |
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Russian shares lost 50% for last 4 months, just today - 12% less. 2 weeks before collaps ? |
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RussianBear
Ranter
Joined: June 25, 2008
Posts: 533
Status: Offline
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Sep 16, 2008 - 11:37 PM |
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Anybody, pls explane to damn like me, where this money gone , or "law of conservation of mass" is broken ? |
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livestrong
Barker
Joined: Sep 25, 2007
Posts: 176
Location: Shanghai
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 12:01 AM |
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| Andreas wrote: |
| Anybody who did not get out of the markets months ago, has shown bad judgement. |
Couldn't agree more!
Of course it's sad to see people loosing money, but have we had any clearer signs then the ones we've got in the last 12-18 months? So yeah, I really don't understand how some people could have missed this...
Cheers |
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winterain
Barker
Joined: May 29, 2007
Posts: 135
Location: Nanpu Bridge Basement
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 01:29 AM |
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GC
The Ginger Prince
Joined: Dec 01, 2003
Posts: 21532
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Sep 17, 2008 - 07:25 AM |
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| Andreas wrote: |
| Anybody who did not get out of the markets months ago, has shown bad judgement. I cashed in about a year ago, and mainly stayed in cash and some land and commodities. I think in a few months we will have some great buying opportunities. |
You even waited till the icebergs had melted before building a boat!
So oh wise one, what's your next prediction?  |
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You turned on the lights, Fuelled U boats by night, That's how you repay us, It's time to go home. |
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Andreas
Board Royalty
Joined: Feb 27, 2004
Posts: 6332
Location: 31 N 121 E
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Sep 17, 2008 - 07:42 AM |
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| GC wrote: |
You even waited till the icebergs had melted before building a boat!
So oh wise one, what's your next prediction? |
That I'll need lots of beer as ballast |
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If it has tits, tires, or a transom, there's gonna be issues! |
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RussianBear
Ranter
Joined: June 25, 2008
Posts: 533
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 07:43 AM |
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if refer to 1998 year asia cricis - property prices should be lost 70% .. |
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spandex
Raver
Joined: June 06, 2006
Posts: 476
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 07:55 AM |
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..... and what's your prognosis for the Shanghai property market? |
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If moths like the light so much why do they only come out when its dark? |
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RussianBear
Ranter
Joined: June 25, 2008
Posts: 533
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 08:01 AM |
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during S@A@R@S in China... property price in Shanghai was as low as 5000/m2 .. |
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Juan_Tamad
Board Royalty
Joined: Jan 29, 2007
Posts: 6230
Location: Smoky Mountain
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 09:28 AM |
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If you have cash, CRISIS breeds OPPORTUNITY!!!! |
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what is moral is what you feel good after, and what is immoral is what you feel bad after
Last edited by Juan_Tamad on Sep 17, 2008 - 11:12 AM; edited 1 time in total |
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Mr Totomolo
Rocker
Joined: June 21, 2008
Posts: 691
Location: Shanghai & Taipei
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 10:03 AM |
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| Quote: |
If you have cash, CRISIS means OPPORTUNITY!!!!
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Then, keep your cash for a little while... opportunities still not coming to knock on the door (maybe when the SSE reaches 1000).
"Still, it has been rumored in the market of Vice-Premier Wang Qishan, in charge of China’s financial supervision, that one of his favorite sayings is “let the market find the floor and get up itself”. "
http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=660
I would not be so presomptuous to make similar guess on the property market... But Russian Bear was right in one comparison: in 1997, in HK, property prices plunged by 40% in a short time...People were jumping from high floors because they had negative equity on their properties, and could not service their debt...
But in China, if the whole property market crashes, then better keep his plane ticket in hand and leave asap, it would turn awful....
| Quote: |
Anybody, pls explane to damn like me, where this money gone , or "law of conservation of mass" is broken ?
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You are right, Bear..in french , we have a saying which says roughly :" Nothing is created, nothng is lost, everything is transformed"
The money was not lost for everybody: for stocks, first, the original stock owners, then the brokers who got commissions, the banks, and in the case of China, ultimately the Chinese government (who was the sole owner of most stocks from the beginning of the market opening).
For the properties: same logic: the Chinese government which owns the land, forever...The builders and developers which hoarded land to make the prices increase artificially, the prperty agents who got commissions. Then of course, the successive sellers...
Of course, as an individual, the most difficult is to know when you need sell and refrain yourself to buy again...and wait... Cash is king, always....but for many investors, cash is dull, they need do something with their money....
Also, not to be an ancestor teacher, but..if you read again Adam Smith "the wealth of nations"... what did all the financial institutions create as wealth , all these years ? Nothing, just hot air like Andreas said above...
They got huge fat bonuses, salaries, commissions, for what?? sitting behind a row of computer screens, and believing they were like God ??
In the end, the economy purpose is just: fulfill the basic human needs... something got forgotten along the way. |
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amig
Barker
Joined: Apr 26, 2007
Posts: 125
Location: suburbia
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 10:13 AM |
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Well, maybe China's 3 trillion reserves can put some brakes into this whirlpool. |
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Juan_Tamad
Board Royalty
Joined: Jan 29, 2007
Posts: 6230
Location: Smoky Mountain
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 10:16 AM |
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Four letters
G O L D |
_________________
what is moral is what you feel good after, and what is immoral is what you feel bad after |
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flysurfing
Barker
Joined: Sep 11, 2006
Posts: 190
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 10:40 AM |
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Friend of mine.
Manager for a famous Bank in London.
Annual remuneration. 1 Million Euro + performance bonus.
Keep it going ! |
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Juan_Tamad
Board Royalty
Joined: Jan 29, 2007
Posts: 6230
Location: Smoky Mountain
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 11:14 AM |
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| flysurfing wrote: |
Friend of mine.
Manager for a famous Bank in London.
Annual remuneration. 1 Million Euro + performance bonus.
Keep it going ! |
LEHMAN U.K. ?
Welcome to the jobless market |
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what is moral is what you feel good after, and what is immoral is what you feel bad after |
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p1atl10
Board Royalty
Joined: Mar 18, 2005
Posts: 6103
Location: Shanghai
Status: Online!
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Sep 17, 2008 - 11:19 AM |
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"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
Baron Phillipe Rothschild |
_________________
Not all chemicals are bad. Without chemicals such as hydrogen and oxygen, for example, there would be no way to make water, a vital ingredient in beer.....Dave Barry |
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Mr Totomolo
Rocker
Joined: June 21, 2008
Posts: 691
Location: Shanghai & Taipei
Status: Offline
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Sep 17, 2008 - 11:40 AM |
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| Quote: |
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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so far, it is not blood yet...More like lot of "fat" from all the bankers, brokers, etc...who got overfed by an extremely uncontrolled market...
Some kind of forced and painful "liposuction".
There will be blood when average Joes will get desperate...
Interesting times |
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underh20
Shanghai Royalty
Joined: Sep 27, 2006
Posts: 9670
Location: EOA Seminar
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Sep 17, 2008 - 08:32 PM |
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| Juan_Tamad wrote: |
Four letters
G O L D |
Six Letters:
S T U P I D
Gold is down 30% from it's high of $1k + and many think it could bottom out at $500. |
_________________
بارك الله ، بارك الله |
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