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teezy123
Barker
Joined: Mar 21, 2008
Posts: 197
Status: Offline
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 Posted:
Oct 07, 2008 - 01:51 AM |
 
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| Post subject: Continued Market Crashing |
US markets are down 5 to 6% already today. Oil falling below 90, Gold is about the only thing going up.
Time to head for the hills? Are there opportunities?
What is the play for an entrepreneur in China? |
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Michael
Moderator
Joined: Mar 22, 2002
Posts: 6342
Status: Offline
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Oct 07, 2008 - 07:41 AM |
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I think there are some bigger bumps coming. A lot of uncertainty. If you want to start a business in China, do something that fills a need and something you know. |
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Yishi
Reacher
Joined: Nov 08, 2007
Posts: 232
Status: Offline
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Oct 07, 2008 - 09:47 AM |
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Oil going down is definitely good news, and if it keeps going and stays there, even better. |
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p1atl10
Shanghai Royalty
Joined: Mar 18, 2005
Posts: 9064
Location: Shanghai
Status: Offline
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Oct 07, 2008 - 11:05 AM |
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Actually....I would tend to disagree.
Oil at a higher price forces the development of other energy sources that may not be economicaaly viable or have to long a POI with oil at low levels..
And in the case of the US, drives people away from the gas hogs they currently buy.
Short term pain....long term gain |
_________________
Not all chemicals are bad. Without chemicals such as hydrogen and oxygen, for example, there would be no way to make water, a vital ingredient in beer.....Dave Barry |
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Count Han
Barker
Joined: Aug 10, 2008
Posts: 152
Status: Offline
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Oct 09, 2008 - 10:14 AM |
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Michael is absolutely right.
Can't comment about business in Shanghai, but can recommend this: buy gold. |
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Yishi
Reacher
Joined: Nov 08, 2007
Posts: 232
Status: Offline
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Oct 09, 2008 - 05:32 PM |
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| p1atl10 wrote: |
Actually....I would tend to disagree.
Oil at a higher price forces the development of other energy sources that may not be economicaaly viable or have to long a POI with oil at low levels..
And in the case of the US, drives people away from the gas hogs they currently buy.
Short term pain....long term gain |
I definitely agree with you on the necessity of alternative energy sources - it's already in full swing and I'm sure there are many other small companies "in hiding" which will emerge with new solutions within the next year. Having said this, oil might get to 50-90USD, not 10USD. Considering the future economic era, to consumers these "lower" prices wouldn't be that low to stop the race for alternative energy solutions while on the other hand would assist in the revival of the economy - no noney, also means no money for investments in startups or the infrastructure to harvest energy sources. You're saying you rather have 150USD oil? I think we should be careful in adding nails to the coffin. Some long terms are really really long... |
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john8wong
Seeker
Joined: July 04, 2007
Posts: 41
Location: Shanghai
Status: Offline
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Oct 09, 2008 - 06:11 PM |
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US, Europe & Japan are in recessions. CASH is KING. Hang on to your money - don't let someone talk you into parting with it. |
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Yishi
Reacher
Joined: Nov 08, 2007
Posts: 232
Status: Offline
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Oct 09, 2008 - 06:32 PM |
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Count Han
Barker
Joined: Aug 10, 2008
Posts: 152
Status: Offline
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Oct 09, 2008 - 10:32 PM |
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Between the US, Europe, and Japan...Japan is going to be just fine, because although it's in a recession (arguably, it's been in a recession for the last 10 years or so), people have such a high savings rate, and its banking system does not have anywhere near the number of problems that the US and European banking systems have at the moment.
Japan is one of the countries I am least concerned about...along with Switzerland.
I recommend buying gold, with Swiss francs a second choice...after that, the RMB, and then the pound.
Recommend against buying US dollars, as the dollar has been steadily losing value for the last 30 years. |
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phiota
LoopKicker
Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Posts: 801
Status: Offline
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Oct 10, 2008 - 05:55 AM |
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Japan I think might do better short term but longer term because of their declining population they might face very slow growth (that part reason they have been in recession so long). I like gold mining stocks and will be looking into the various currencies also.
John |
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CoffeeHawk_0
Board Deity
Joined: July 14, 2005
Posts: 19090
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Oct 10, 2008 - 08:16 AM |
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phiota
LoopKicker
Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Posts: 801
Status: Offline
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Oct 10, 2008 - 08:12 PM |
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Here’s some typical WS humor circulating trading desks these days:
TARP-$700 billion bailout--Taxpayers Are Really Pissed.
CEO -- Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO -- Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER -- What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW -- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use. |
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DL573
Talker
Joined: Sep 14, 2006
Posts: 96
Status: Offline
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Nov 11, 2008 - 03:04 AM |
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| Count Han wrote: |
Michael is absolutely right.
Can't comment about business in Shanghai, but can recommend this: buy gold. |
Very bad advice. Gold is a commodity and an inflation hedge. Why would you buy that in the middle of an economic downturn (which will tend to reduce inflation) and a massive commodity bust (which will tend to deflate all commodity prices)?
In an environment like this one, the smart play is to buy property and stocks in deflated markets. Cash isn't a bad hold either, subject to the economic fundamentals of the currency in question. And anyone who thinks the economic fundamentals of the eurozone are better than the economic fundamentals of the US is, historically, a fool. |
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Michael
Moderator
Joined: Mar 22, 2002
Posts: 6342
Status: Offline
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Nov 11, 2008 - 12:06 PM |
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Deflation is just the first stage. The way they are pumping money.. inflation ( at least in USD terms) is not far behind. Everything is deflating, so I don't see where real estate is a safe bet either. Cash is good as long as its not in USD, but even if cash doesn't generate a lot of return.. its probably the safest. Anything that pays a good return is probably high risk right now. |
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phiota
LoopKicker
Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Posts: 801
Status: Offline
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Nov 11, 2008 - 12:58 PM |
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The way I'm playing it in the US market is to be half long (Agriculture/Infrastructure) and half short (Real Estate/Russel2000) via ETF's/Mutual Funds . With the short gaining a lot recently it is more like 60/40 now...greed takes over fear (that's why not rebalanced yet   
John |
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