I know hc recently got beaten up for posting a news story without commentary but I thought this NYTimes article on discount airlines in Asia might be of general interest especially at this time of year.

Does Low Cost Mean High Risk?
Damas Ardian/Bloomberg News

By JOSHUA KURLANTZICK
Published: December 23, 2007

IN the wake of September’s crash in Phuket of a jet from One-Two-Go Airlines, a Thai low-cost carrier, some aviation experts expressed shock that the plane had even tried to land. Shortly before the jet came down, other aircraft landing on the Thai island had warned traffic controllers of dangerously wet and windy conditions, and the One-Two-Go pilots could have canceled their landing. They didn’t, and more than 80 passengers were killed when the jet skidded beyond the runway and burst into flames.
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If they had followed One-Two-Go’s history, though, observers might not have been shocked by the crash. South Korean and Thai regulators previously had cited One-Two-Go’s parent company for poor safety measures. Worse, the crash revealed one of the biggest worries about travel in Asia today: In a developing region witnessing a boom in the number of low-cost airlines, can tourists trust their lives on these budget carriers?

Once dominated by large airlines like Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines, Asia has seen an explosion of low-cost carriers in the past five years. A pioneer, Air Asia, based in Malaysia, demonstrated that the region’s growing middle classes, who couldn’t afford full fare, would pay for cheaper seats.

Following Air Asia’s success, many others have followed, a boom of names like the India-based Air Deccan and Spice Jet and Philippines-based Cebu Pacific. Some low-cost airlines, like Singapore-based Tiger Airways, are even branching out into Australia and other regions. Governments have been happy to oblige, with Thailand allowing an expansion of carriers like One-Two-Go, Bangkok Airways and Nok Air.

The emergence of discount Asian carriers has enormous benefits for travelers. On the popular Bangkok-Singapore corridor, Air Asia is selling some round-trip tickets for about $150, compared with $500 or more on Singapore Airlines. The low-cost airlines have also boosted traffic to destinations like Luang Prabang, the old royal capital of Laos.

According to figures compiled by the international flight information company OAG, the number of low-cost flights in the Asia-Pacific region has grown from 3,900 six years ago to over 60,000 today. “The rapid pace of low-cost carrier expansion is set to continue,” says a report issued by Derek Sadubin, chief operating officer at the Center for Asia Pacific Aviation, another industry analyst. “The projected low-cost carrier fleet growth figures are staggering.”

But explosive growth can also make companies reckless. “Regulators are again concerned that the market has been growing too quickly,” wrote Nicholas Ionides of Flight International, a leading aviation industry publisher. Though many budget carriers have young fleets, some Asian carriers buy old planes that had been sitting, unused, in American deserts; on a Nok Air flight this year from Bangkok to Chiang Mai, what looked like duct tape was holding together seats and parts of the bathroom.

The expansion of low-cost carriers and the boom in travel in India and China create other worrying trends. They have sparked a severe pilot shortage in Asia, which may hurt safety as more inexperienced men and women settle into the cockpit. Meanwhile, some aviation analysts worry that Asian governments, caught in a low-cost frenzy, are allowing businesspeople to start airlines without enough capital on hand. Many Asian nations cannot compare with Western Europe and North America, where carriers like Ryanair and Southwest emerged in markets that already had strong safety standards.

“When the U.S.A. deregulated in the late 1970s and early 1980s, it was feared that it would increase the accident rate,” said David Learmount, a safety expert at Flight International magazine. “But it didn’t. Part of the reason it didn’t was that the Federal Aviation Administration heightened its safety oversight vigilance just in case.”

Southwest, for instance, has a strong safety record, yet in Thailand not only One-Two-Go but also the low-cost carrier Phuket Air have come under scrutiny. Phuket Air overshot a runway landing in eastern Thailand. Before taking off to Britain in 2005, passengers reportedly saw fuel leaking out of a Phuket Air plane and refused to fly on it. In 2006 Phuket Air was banned from flying into the European Union. (It was reinstated earlier this year.)

“Deregulation in Indonesia made already bad safety records even worse because the aviation authorities had no teeth, so there was no safety oversight to protect travelers,” Mr. Learmount said.

Indeed, Indonesia may be the scariest nation in Asia for fliers. In the past three years alone, a plane from Adam Air, an Indonesian low-cost carrier, vanished without a trace; another Adam Air plane cracked open upon landing; a Garuda Indonesia flight overran the runway in Yogyakarta and caught fire, killing at least 20; and an aircraft of Lion Air, another discount airline, went off a runway on Java, killing about 30.

Smart travelers are learning how to find solid information about Asia’s new airlines. The Aviation Safety Network (www.aviation-safety.net) contains statistics on air accidents broken down by carrier and region, as well as weekly updates of air safety incidents. Other Web sites like www.airsafe.com have similar data on incidents; www.airlinequality.com offers passengers’ takes on many budget carriers.

Government regulators outside Asia can also help. The International Aviation Safety Assessments program of the F.A.A. (www.faa.gov/safety/programs_initiatives/oversight/iasa) contains ratings of each nation’s air safety, while the European Union maintains a blacklist of airlines (www.ec.europa.eu/transport/air-ban/pdf/list_en.pdf) that are banned from flying into Europe. Currently, the European Union bans every Indonesian carrier.

Eventually, the opinions of foreign visitors may force Asian airlines to improve. “Watch Korea and Taiwan; their safety oversight was rubbish not long ago, but now it’s good,” Mr. Learmount said. “Korean Air lost its right to code-share with U.S. carriers — notably Delta — until it set up a credible safety management system.”

“The driving force” for safer planes is “competition itself,” he says. “People in the U.S. don’t fly with airlines that keep crashing.”

everybody doesnt fly with problem airlines but not only US citizen.
I can name easily a few of budget airlines with better flying records in Asia but sometimes it also depends where the mother company of the budget airline is located as different country might have different air policy in governing their airlines even though they have to fulfill IATA requirements, my 2 cents.

I've just come back from a trip to Cebu in the Phillipines with Cebu Pacific Air. I had to change in Manilla so 2 flights there and 2 flights back. The Shanghai to Manila flight was delayed by 2 hours and I missed my connection. They put us on the next flight without a fuss. This new flight was then delayed for about 90 minutes.

Our flight yesterday from Cebu to Manila was delayed for an hour but amazingly the Manila to Shanghai flight was on time and landed at PVG 20 minutes early!

The aircraft were new and the service good. It's standard budget airline service so you have to buy snacks/drinks.

I'm not sure if they have a general problem with delays though. While I was waiting for the Cebu-Manila flight yesterday another Cebu Pacific flight boarded, waited on the tarmac for a while, offloaded it's passengers and was cancelled! They did give people a voucher for a rescheduled flight which is more than you would get from Ryanair in Europe!

When I booked my flights you had to book two separate flights but they have improved the booking engine now so you can book the connecting flight together.

We were not able to check our luggage through on the outbound journey so had to collect it at Manila and handcarry it to the domestic terminal (via shuttle bus). On the return we were able to check in for both flights in Cebu and check the luggage through to PVG.

Cebu was a really nice place to spend the New Year. Feeling cold back in Shanghai.

But did you get back alive?

Yes, the flight was comfortable and all landings smooth. On Airline Quality the problems seem to be more the kind I experienced. Frequent delays and chaotic check in procedures. Luckily we were checked through on the return as the Cebu Pacific check in area in Manila looked like a complete joke.

From the NY Times 'eh? More American "news" trash.

The reality is that airlines all over the world are looking to cut costs, including those in developed western countries. Asia not really different from other places such as Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America etc....Give it a few year and we can add the USA to the list as their economy goes bust.

Statistically though, air travel is still very safe, and most crashes occur because of human error.

sberman. many thanks for posting this. the main thing i got out if was the two sites that you can check passenger's reports on airlines. much prefer to read their feedack.

Adrienne
http://www.shanghaiprops.com

You should hear about the time I flew a Chinese airline and the passengers had to land the plane themselves! Turned out the CEO of the airline was letting his precocious 11 year old nephew fly some of the quieter routes. I know it sounds crazy but I think he was trying to cut costs or something. The problem was that the boy had ADD, drank about a gallon of Fanta , and forgot to take his Ritalin. What were the dumb air hostesses thinking? I wonder about Chinese people sometimes. So we have this out of control Chinese boy bouncing off the walls of an aircraft which is rapidly plummeting earthwards, and the crew are racing around asking if there is a pilot on board. Only in Asia, eh? "This is China" I kept telling myself as I took deep breaths. Well they couldn't find a civilian pilot but they did find an alcoholic fighter pilot who hadn't touched the controls of an aircraft since the Vietcong tortured his buddy some years previously. Great guy but a bit of an oddball. For a while there I was wondering if we were going to make it. Of course as usually happens in China everything worked out in the end. Really though it was all so unprofessional.

Kiwi, that was brilliant. You write like Tom Robbins.

When you are sitting in your airline seat just remember just about everything around you has been bought from the lowest bidder.

I worked with supplying spare parts for aircraft engines with a previous company and the scariest thing we had to deal with was some equipment sent back for repair.

When the serial numbers were checked on each item they turned out to have come from a pair of aircraft engines that were part of a plane that crashed in Columbia in South America.

The engines dissapeared when they were being sent to Bogota with the rest of the aircraft for the aircraft accident investigators to check.

The parts from those engines turned up all over the world with false documentation and it would appear some were used by some third world countries national airlines.

Flight International once made the comment about Indonesian airlines that they replace by attrition rather than wear and tear.

jzzzzzzz wrote:Yes, the flight was comfortable and all landings smooth. On Airline Quality the problems seem to be more the kind I experienced. Frequent delays and chaotic check in procedures. Luckily we were checked through on the return as the Cebu Pacific check in area in Manila looked like a complete joke.

I flew the same airline> I was a little concerned at check in when they asked for dental records instead of photo ID

Kiwi wrote:But did you get back alive?

duh!!!

Good question though, because a lot of people here are dead and they did not realize yet, and nobody could be bothered to tell them. I have a few hundred working for me. Talking about fun

Me_Again

Statistically though, air travel is still very safe, and most crashes occur because of human error.

What is interesting to those of us that fly airplanes and read NTSB airplane crash reports and excerpts is that it is very rare that a crash occurs because of one single error, be it mechanical or human error. A crash is the result of a series, usually at least three, errors or problems occuring at the same time. The report normally states a primary problem that caused a crash followed by contributing errors, problems and factors. Every pilot knows this so vigilence in the cockpit is dramatically augumented anytime there is one or more problem or error.

With the technologies installed in airplanes today to fly and land these crafts, the pilot workload has decreased significantly over the years making for safer flights. Everything from situational awareness computers to onboard sophisticated weather reporting makes flights much safer today than just a couple of decades ago. Pilot training, retraining and simulators have also come a long way to help in this effort.

The problem with low time pilots is that they are more apt to make an error in judgement than more senior pilots. Judgement is mostly what separates a good pilot from a mediocre one. And judgement in unusual avaiation situations takes time to develop.

I see OK Air suspended several flights in Tianjin in the past few days because they couldn't pay to have the aircraft refuelled.

Can't pay for the fuel eh ?

And what about the maintenance budget ?

OK, I Guess that's Not-OK Air.

Whch cruel bastard bumped this thread?! Just reminded me how I spent last Christmas and New Year in the sunshine. This year I have freezing my balls off in the UK, then freezing my balls off in Haerbin!

At least I'll get some real ale in the UK!

leidelaohu wrote:

Renovator wrote:The problem with low time pilots is that they are more apt to make an error in judgement than more senior pilots. Judgement is mostly what separates a good pilot from a mediocre one.

One of those catch-22's ... to survive a bad situation you need experience. How do you get experience ? By surviving bad situations

Fortunately, most of the high risk situations happen in the first 4000-5000 hours of pilot in command time. Often in single engine aircraft (pushed to their limits), flying cargo, checks or other commercial runs at night in foul weather while building up flight hours. Usually these are single pilot or pilot/copilot missions. The few life threatening close calls that happen during this period, are remembered by any pilot during their entire flying career.

There is a saying among pilots that there are bold pilots and there are old pilots but there are no old bold pilots. By the time a pilot starts flying the large aircraft with many passengers aboard, they have usually survived a few of these situations.

Unfortunately, as airlines in Asia are craving new pilots all the time, pilots trained mostly in simulators make for mechanically great pilots, but nothing in the simulator is remembered like a close call on a commercial run where you were lucky to come out of it alive.

Near had a 180% roll over in a Hercules C-130H years ago in the Australian Air Force due to windshear at Laverton, Victoria (AUS) on landing approach and bad ATC advice, clear weather, sunset .

Lined up, and oopsie.... WTF ? 3 km out and no roll out clear, we're varying, significantly. Way off line, and dropping too fast. I Call it. He calls it.

Potential "Go around', "Abort". NOW. "Sir". We did an an immediate 110% power round circuit, 200 km to do a re-approach over Geelong and re-land at Laverton.

I didn't crave a simulator then.

Now that's safe for our passengers and ME.

Z.

Wow, interesting old thread.

There's a serious flaw in the theory that the market will discipline airlines into operating safely. That flaw is asymmetrical risk -- the passengers risk death, while those who operate unsafe airlines risk only bankruptcy. I am certain there are airline executives who will risk MY life in order to increase THEIR profits.

Wabbit

According to BBC News, the father of the Nigerian who attempted to blow up the Delta airliner whilst approaching Detroit had emailed US authorities to warn them about his son's extreme anti American views. This man happened to be a very wealthy banker.

You can imagine the email arriving at the US Government's offices:

Good afternoon, I am a wealthy Nigerian banker....

The Nigerian kid was on an international watch list of 500,000 or so individuals that are likely threats to the US. The TSA, however, is too busy making sure that the rest of the millions of us spend the last hour of our flights with no access to carry on, not able to use bathrooms, submit to extra pat downs at security check points and other stupid measures so TSA can continue to look busy rather than actually address the problem. Maybe if TSA spent less time doing a dog and pony show for the good guys, they would have plenty of time to review the fliers that can actually pose a security threat.

At least the Dutch Laowai guy primarily and other passengers and crew tackled the fker.

I can visualise the scene, and it wouldn't be nice.

Some are part of "Star Alliance" which implies certain standards, such as Air China or Shanghai Airlines

Renovator wrote:The Nigerian kid was on an international watch list of 500,000 or so individuals that are likely threats to the US. The TSA, however, is too busy making sure that the rest of the millions of us spend the last hour of our flights with no access to carry on, not able to use bathrooms, submit to extra pat downs at security check points and other stupid measures so TSA can continue to look busy rather than actually address the problem. Maybe if TSA spent less time doing a dog and pony show for the good guys, they would have plenty of time to review the fliers that can actually pose a security threat.

I totally agree with that.
But dont they call profiling, descriminatory and so everyone is subjected to it because terrorists are equal opportunity killers, therefore all people flying have to be equal opportunity screened.

I'd like to know the relative risk of:
Killing yourself (suicide and accident).
Death in an aircrash.
Death from terrorist actions (bombs, guns etc).
and
Spread of germs and disease at airport checkpoints, where they are cross contaminating at the security checks, through their totally unsanitary handling practices. The trays are usually filthy, security people are touching, sometimes going through your stuff with dirty hands (one time a guy with skin weeping crap, dripping, from his hand) was trawling through my onboard luggage without a (clean) glove.
The entire system is a petry dish of germ warfare that no one seems to have noticed because they are too busy patting down and examining the luggage of a people who just does not fit the demographic of what/who they are actually are looking for.

Thanks to the OP because I really like to compare the safety standards between airlines.

it makes me angry when the security screeners in china's airports won't let me place my backpack in a tray even when i ask for it or actually do it myself. they will take my backpack out of the tray and put it on the conveyor belt. so basically whatever crap other people have been dragging their luggage through is now rubbed off on my backpack and now my clothes.

I did a classic Ali G line at customs in Pu Dong, came from Thailand got my 1 suitcase and proceeded to customs. Masses of people walking past customs many chinese. Customs see me, "where you come from", "thailand" told to put my computer bag and suitcase through scanner, "is you stopping me because i is black!!" got the customs guy angry, i was p!ssed as i was only person of colour there. What p!ssed my more there were loads of single passengers coming off my flight with trolley pilled high with luggage and boxes never asked them to be scanned.

I felt comfortable with the travels I always prefer. I always consult them for booking for tickets and rooms at my destination.
______________
gap year travel

always bring a parachute?

^ American British??

JasUK wrote: "is you stopping me because i is black!!"

Hahaha, sorry mate, but that is figgin funny, ahahaha...

I was out for dinner with some friends last month and we met three pilots, American senior pilots, who had an extra couple of days layover in Shanghai because the cargo plane they were going to crew was held up in the middle east.
The thing that we discovered and that is a tiny bit worrying:
The international language of air traffic control is English. Right?
While in-flight the pilots listen into the transmissions between air traffic control and other planes, to have some idea of what is going on with all air traffic near the airports.
In China the air traffic controllers speak English but if they are communicating with Chinese pilots then they will talk to them in Mandarin, even though legally they are supposed to be speaking in English.
This means that all pilots who do not speak or rather understand Mandarin will not know what those other conversations are about.
This is a bit of a concern considering the amount of air traffic into and out of China and the various multinational carriers operating over Chine and into/out of the country.

Perhaps someone on here who knows more about this might like to add something to this information.