by rickettyrabbit » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:37 am
I don't think it will turn out so well. China has a history of overspending and nearly bankrupting its banks. It's happened roughly every 10 years, and usually something is done that puts off the problem to the future. Eventually, all the bad loans on the banks' balance sheets will come home to roost. When they do, China is likely to do what it has done in the past, either inflating its way out of it (this expropriating wealth) or nationalizing deposits (thus expropriating wealth).
I once thought it might be resolved partly through increased taxation, but now I don't think China has an adequate infrastructure to apply taxes with any semblance of fairness. The banks have been weakened by all this infrastructure spending, and many of the loans made to SOEs will never be paid off. China has few choices in this matter.
Many wonder why wealthy Chinese are always looking for a way out of China. In fact, most of them are not. As one put it, "yes, it's dirty, busy, noisy, crude . . . but it's my home and I feel alive in it". So why are they looking for residence in new countries? Simply put, they know China's history of expropriating wealth, and they want to get some of it out of China where, even though the income it produces will be taxed by a foreign government, it won't be completely expropriated by China.
Wabbit
"I work so hard, don't you understand
Making maple syrup for the pancakes of our land."
Frank Zappa