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No sign of slowing down after Olympics?

The place to share news stories and discussions about them. News stories posted to other sections are typically moved here as well. Traditionally, the primary raison d'etre of this section was to post hard-to-access/find articles that often dissapear crossing the GFW. But please note subject and postings are subject to scrutiny.

No sign of slowing down after Olympics?

Postby georgeshen » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:01 pm

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008 ... hina_N.htm

Contrary to most of the prediction I have seen/heard, it seems there is no slowdown. Prof. Hu's "totalitarian system" comment is probably a thing of lost in translation.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Beijing building goes beyond Olympics

By Calum MacLeod, USA TODAY
BEIJING — The Olympic Games are over, leaving Beijing with stunning structures such as the Bird's Nest stadium and multiple new subway lines, but one of the greatest building booms in history is far from finished.
Despite the global economic slowdown, the Chinese government is steaming ahead with large-scale projects to turn this rural nation into an urban, industrial powerhouse.

The projects range from the world's fastest train and the world's largest Ferris wheel to legions of skyscrapers and thousands of miles of highways.

China "is spending massive amounts on infrastructure," says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai. Fixed-asset investment, a major pillar of the national economy, stands at 45% of the gross domestic product — a "world-record-breaking number," Green says.

In comparison, Korea, Japan and Singapore never broke 40% when they were developing at their fastest pace, Green says.

Basis for growth

The results are hard to miss. "When you travel around China, you see new airports being built, new skyscrapers going up and a lot of new multilane roads, often very empty, but the U.S. interstate highways were empty, too, at first," Green says. "They can provide a solid basis for long-term growth."

The country's tallest building, the 101-story Shanghai World Financial Center, opened at the end of August in the metropolitan area of more than 20 million people that was already crowded with skyscrapers.

By 2025, an additional 5 million buildings — including up to 50,000 skyscrapers, or the equivalent of 10 New York Cities — could be built in China, the McKinsey Global Institute, a U.S. consulting firm, predicted in a March report.

China could end up with as many as 221 cities that each have a population above 1 million, as a result of hundreds of millions of farmers moving to urban areas.

That's good news for U.S. firms such as Caterpillar, a leading maker of construction equipment, which expects a record $2 billion in sales in China this year. China's construction boom "is unequaled by anywhere else in the world," says Martin Bryant, director of WesTrac, the Caterpillar dealer for northern China.

"Growth will continue for at least the next two years. There will not be a post-Olympic slowdown in construction, as there is still capital to be invested" in the country's five-year plan for 2006-2010, Bryant says.

China is packing into decades what the West took centuries to achieve, says Hu Xingdou, an economics professor at the Beijing University of Technology.

He says the effort is driven by the government's strong grip on the economy, despite three decades of capitalist-style changes.

"Just 62 miles from Beijing, you can visit very poor villages, so there is clearly a great need for investment in infrastructure," Hu says.

China's communist government enjoys another advantage, he says. In the USA or India, "the democratic system can often bring greater costs and delays to projects. China does not face this trouble. But a totalitarian system also has costs, and the consequences can be more serious," Hu says, referring to shoddy construction of schools that collapsed in an earthquake in May.

Largest Ferris wheel

One eye-catching Beijing project to start next year is being billed as the world's largest Ferris wheel — 682 feet tall when it opens in 2010.

The $290 million privately funded venture would dwarf the famous London Eye (443 feet high) and the original wheel (262 feet) built by George Ferris for the 1893 World's Columbian Exposition in Chicago.

"On a good clear day, you'll see the Great Wall and the Western Hills" during the 30-minute "flight" in one of 48 air-conditioned capsules, says the Beijing Great Wheel's marketing manager Gerald Ang.

"Unfortunately, that doesn't happen very often in Beijing," he says, referring to the city's smog.
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Postby bloomark » Thu Sep 11, 2008 7:38 pm

Yeah, definately no signals for slowdown so far, but it is out of nessecity. The Chinese ethnity is well known for its distinctive hard-woking trait. The overwhelming majority of Chinese are compelling workaholics, because pretty large part of them are still paid low and the prices are rocketing high. Thanks for the government's controllable inflation strategy, it has contributed a lot to this state. Plus, the bearing limit of Chinese mass is still far beyond predicted. The Olympics now seems to be more of a boost than burden to the economy growth. U.S. is the most winner and benefited at that.
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Postby ziccawei » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:19 am

I suppose this is good news for some people (notably America for one), but it seems that China's main priority is to be number one at everything, at any cost. What benefit is it to the (approx.) 900 million peasants in this country having the country's tallest building? Five million more buildings by 2025? 50,000 skyscrapers? Wow, that's a bit scary.

This is especially worrying:

China could end up with as many as 221 cities that each have a population above 1 million, as a result of hundreds of millions of farmers moving to urban areas.


221 cities with major social problems and high crime rates probably. Who will continue to grow the rice and corn?

I like the way they emphasize that the worlds largest ferris wheel will be privately funded.

Hilarious.
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Postby bravojohnny » Fri Sep 12, 2008 6:03 pm

Tourism has slowed down though.
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Postby Buzzd » Sun Sep 14, 2008 4:52 am

Chinese tourism is almost booming. The one star hotels have been sold out for days.
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Postby dsugg » Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:08 am

I am getting mixed signals but most are bad. I know most merchandise factories are taking a beating. I just wonder how much the growing internal consumer spending can offset. I was in Plaza 66 last weekend and many people were buying. They weren't laowai though. They all looked like Zhejiang factory owners in Shanghai for the weekend with there 2nd wife - and buying her the obligatory LV etc. purse.
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Postby Mr Totomolo » Sun Sep 14, 2008 1:27 pm

No slowdown ? you must have your eyes in the ice-cream, my friends.....

there is plenty of bad news for those looking for it. Yesterday Reuters cited a Lehman Brothers report on declining August car sales:



China's passenger car sales fell 10 percent in August from a year earlier, preliminary data showed, due to the impact of the Olympics and weakening consumer confidence, Lehman Brothers said in a research report on Thursday.

The report said auto sales in China, the world's second-largest car market, were expected to remain lacklustre for the rest of 2008 and possibly into early 2009. Compared with the month before, sales were down 12 percent, the report said.



Also yesterday the Financial Times warned that “Chinese steel consumption set to fall”:



Growth in Chinese steel consumption is expected to slow markedly in the second half of this year amid weakening demand from the construction, household appliance and automobile industries, according to industry experts.



Yang Siming, general manager of Nanjing Iron & Steel told a steel conference in Xiamen this week that most Chinese steel mills had cut output last month, because of shrinking demand and high costs of raw materials. ”We’ve been cutting production since last month, and according to my knowledge, most domestic mills are cutting output too,” Mr Yang said.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/94126-i ... of-capital

http://seekingalpha.com/article/94842-c ... rplus-high

OK, the CPI level has eased in August...and then?? most probably, because chinese houselholds are reducing their consumption...In the meantime, the PPI has increased a little, not decreased too...
Talk to some exporters, you will get a better sound of bell...
And to believe that the China domestic market was going to offset the export loss of business... That was a 5 years old child theory... Prepare yourselves for more Red mao printing from the PBoC

And I dont talk about the stock market...another 2 weeks and it will drop in the dangerous territory below 2000 points.

And how about the property market ?
have you read this news: http://english.caijing.com.cn/2008-09-12/110012155.html

and this one , even better : http://english.caijing.com.cn/2008-09-09/110011231.html
"Chinese property developer Hengda Real Estate Group has slashed its new apartment prices in Nanjing by up to 35 percent, stirring a storm in what had been a peaceful property market in this capital of Jiangsu Province"
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Postby Mr Totomolo » Sun Sep 14, 2008 9:45 pm

^^ ****. I shoulda bargained harder
What's inflation projected to be this next year, Toto ?

maybe not the perfect answer to your question, but...
http://www.chinastakes.com/BlogOneArtic ... 2&&AID=657

About inflation...but also about property market....

and about property market, you should read this too http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=647

I am sure the stock market will hit 1000 in early 2009
The inflation will jump bak to at least 8%, maybe 10%
and the property market will will see huge price decreases, except in some micro-markets like downtown Shanghai...
Just need another 6 to 8 months of financial mess and meltdown in US and Europe...It is coming: after Lehman, next on the list: AIG ??
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Postby dsugg » Sun Sep 14, 2008 10:13 pm

Thanks for the articles - but even in the west where things are supposed to be more transparent, the prognosticators are wrong 50% of the time, so it is interesting to hear actual anecdotes from people doing business in China.

I visited out main supplier factory in Wuxi last week and they were the quietest they have been in a long time. It seems anything related to export for retail stores in the west has taken a hit on the sales side but the bigger problem for many is the rising costs and labour shortages.

On the other side of the argument I still see signs of strong consumer spending here. Real Estate is different in that there was a bubble and therefore there should be an adjustment. The stock market has got to effect real estate and other luxury purchases as well.

Like I said though - overall I see more negative than good. Keep in mind that the government tried to cool off the economy and I think they over did it even though it has not showed up in the GDP numbers yet. I actually am impressed with the job they do in managing the economy even if it is heavy handed. I have more faith in them to turn this thing around than I do in the western governments who are hamstrung by that damn democracy/getting re elected thing.
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Postby Mr Totomolo » Sun Sep 14, 2008 10:22 pm

I have more faith in them to turn this thing around than I do in the western governments who are hamstrung by that damn democracy/getting re elected thing.

How can I say this ?? last month, some homebuyers of Vanke were demonstrating in the streets of Shanghai, because the developer slashed prices when they had paid full prices few weeks or months ago...
Not many stock market investors have taken to the streets yet...
But if too many people get hurt, they will take to the streets...but then...20 years, many people took to the streets because inflation was at 50%...We all know this country government has "different ways"to turn things around, even when the populace disagrees...
Neverhteless, I agree wth you: exports are down, and badly..and corporate profits, already razor-thin before, are going into smoke..
If real estate sector goes burst, banks will get a huge hit...
Then God saves China...and the rest of the world.
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Postby phiota » Mon Sep 15, 2008 12:31 am

Sometimes I think the stock/real estate and general economy is going down big time then I go to ikea on a Saturday and see huge crowds there looking and shopping. I am short the US market via ETF's. Any thoughts of good stocks to short or go long on in CHina or anywhere in the workd?

John
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Postby dsugg » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:30 am

Ikea might be good value but it is not necessarily good quality. The Chinese shopping there are buying furniture for their investment condos so they can rent them out to Laowai.
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Postby dsugg » Mon Sep 15, 2008 1:31 am

Just noticed the original article was from USA Today so this entire thread is null and void
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Postby Bohica » Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:03 am

Mr Totomolo wrote:
^^ ****. I shoulda bargained harder
What's inflation projected to be this next year, Toto ?

maybe not the perfect answer to your question, but...
http://www.chinastakes.com/BlogOneArtic ... 2&&AID=657

About inflation...but also about property market....

and about property market, you should read this too http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=647

I am sure the stock market will hit 1000 in early 2009
The inflation will jump bak to at least 8%, maybe 10%
and the property market will will see huge price decreases, except in some micro-markets like downtown Shanghai...
Just need another 6 to 8 months of financial mess and meltdown in US and Europe...It is coming: after Lehman, next on the list: AIG ??



The day of reckoning for Wall Street is upon us. Read yesterday that Lehman chairman, Dick Fuld had a $40 million bonus for 2007. Apparently for the fine job he has done. The US needs to let these banks go and go through a cleansing as tough as it will be.
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Postby Bohica » Mon Sep 15, 2008 9:05 am

Also, next up is WaMu. This will really put the hurt on FDIC
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Postby dsugg » Fri Sep 26, 2008 4:57 am

I am sure the stock market will hit 1000 in early 2009
The inflation will jump bak to at least 8%, maybe 10%
and the property market will will see huge price decreases, except in some micro-markets like downtown Shanghai...


Totomolo - sticking to your prediction? The government seems to have decided enough is enough on the dropping stock price. The big state owned companies are buying back stock and I believe the sovereign wealth fund is buying up stocks. Sounds like the heavy hand of the government has moved into action. On the other hand - the sky is falling in the USA - or at least that is the spin on it. That is sure to hurt demand even more for China exports. Don't be stubborn. It is OK to re-assess if warranted.
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Postby Mr Totomolo » Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:25 am

Totomolo - sticking to your prediction?

Definitely.
for the stock market, you have surely noticed that the governement funds have bought and supported mostly banks stocks... You can compare this a little with what the Fed is trying to do with their 700 billions, although less obvious...
The chinese banks are so much deep in the real estate with the loans granted all these years...
Now, read this about banks: http://english.caijing.com.cn/2008-09-24/110015600.html
and this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/96935-w ... na-s-banks

and then read this about real estate: http://english.caijing.com.cn/2008-09-24/110015479.html

Then let see in 3-4 months time :wink2::
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Postby dsugg » Fri Sep 26, 2008 1:42 pm

Damn - just when i was starting to feel optimistic.

Of course you mentioned the rise in the market was not based on logic - it was gambling euphoria and momentum, so the facts in these articles can have limited weight. I am going on record that the US and SSE markets are close to bottom and will rise soon (mostly wishful thinking). Not willing to bet on it though

thanks for the interesting links
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Postby Bohica » Fri Sep 26, 2008 8:58 pm

phiota wrote:Sometimes I think the stock/real estate and general economy is going down big time then I go to ikea on a Saturday and see huge crowds there looking and shopping. I am short the US market via ETF's. Any thoughts of good stocks to short or go long on in CHina or anywhere in the workd?

John


Not to oversimplify, but good companies with good products have become ridiculously cheap. I bought several last week and continue to look for more. Some great companies out there, because of their price drop, have dividend yields of 6% and up. I don't like to give other people individual names but companies like P&G are rock solid.

I would add that I don't think there is any reason to rush in, but a nice pop will come if US agrees to bailout (even though I think it's a horrible idea)
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Postby Mr Totomolo » Fri Sep 26, 2008 9:06 pm

companies like P&G are rock solid.

I tend to agree with you... At least with companies producing really basic necessities (not like GE for example http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/busin ... r7q5flPo0w)

But my comments above were directed only towrds the chinese stock market , since it was the original topic of the OP
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Postby black_bird » Fri Sep 26, 2008 11:54 pm

GE will be alrite. it doesnt buy credit derivatives for investments. GE Money's investment is well diversed internationally. it did take over a few property businesses but not in the US. not to mention GE Infrastracture and a few other businesses that are solid, profit growth will come back.
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Postby phiota » Sat Sep 27, 2008 3:05 am

I think the emerging markets economy wise (since less debt & more savings) including China will do better then US and the developed world BUT not sure when the decompling will happen. Right now when the US falls/gains 1% the emerging markets fall 2%. Am buying some select high cash stocks. shorting US tech/real estate and buying gold etfs.

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Postby Bohica » Sat Sep 27, 2008 9:37 pm

phiota wrote:I think the emerging markets economy wise (since less debt & more savings) including China will do better then US and the developed world BUT not sure when the decompling will happen. Right now when the US falls/gains 1% the emerging markets fall 2%. Am buying some select high cash stocks. shorting US tech/real estate and buying gold etfs.

John


Yep, the US is ill prepared for a recession since there is negative savings rate. As soon as business slows down, there is no cushion. I read a statistic once that something like 70% of US population was 2 paychecks from being homeless.

By the way, GE Capital has $28 billion worth of UK Real Estate that doesn't look real good right now. Not a huge number for a company the size of GE but still significant.
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Postby WalkerL » Mon Mar 23, 2009 1:20 am

They should award the 2016 Olympic China...hahaha.
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