I dont know if any of you guys here live in shenzhen or not but if there is some, can you guys give me some news regarding the situation of the SZ property market. I am interested in a 42 SPM located @ shekou the price now is 500,000 RMB. Well just keep in mind that i am staying in HK, so would this year be a good time to think about buying or is better to wait and watch maybe 2009 will be better.

But considering the HKD is falling against the RMB, unless there is a big drop, perhaps does that price look attractive?

Anyway even so i would also love to hear about the property prices in shanghai and how they are doing.


Regards..

Better to wait after the Olympic games finished or even later until 2009. The prices are incredbly high compared to normal people's pocket here in China.

My advice is to wait. China in general does not have an active second hand market. That is why the prices can be dictated by developers, who devise all sorts of schemes to ensure the prices keep increasing. If you take a look around, and I have, not only in Shenzhen, but Zhuhai, Suzhou, Shanghai, Dalian etc you will notice that there are many empty apartments, many of which even bare, because owners are just hoping to make a quick buck from escalating prices. Many of them waited for several years, and though on paper they are getting richer, the apartments remain empty. So wait, the bubble will burst eventually and I believe once prices fall, it will pick up speed like never seen before.
I understand your concern too with the appreciation of the yuan versus the HK dollars. What you can do is to put aside the 500,000 in HSBC China in a fixed deposit to be renewed yearly for an interest rate of 4.14%. This way, you can enjoy Premier banking and at the same time get a good interest rate. Do bear in mind that the 5% of your interest will have to be given to the Chinese government as tax. You are left with the 95% which is still quite substantial. Comes up to an additional 19,665 RMB per year and at the same time enjoy the appreciation of the Yuan. Then when prices drop you actually fork out less and can use the interest and the savings from the drop to renovate your place.
Good Luck

By the way, by depositing 500,000 RMB in a fixed deposit in HSBC China, you are qualified to be their premier banking customer worldwide, including Hong Kong, without the need to pay any fees and enjoy savings in their other banking products.

thx for the adivce is just that i have most of my money at the stock markets. WHen i mean at the stock market i dont mean i am speculating, 90% of the stocks i bnought where back in 2004, and i haven;t sold any. THis year they are paying good dividends, i realise that the RMB apperciation is most likely going keep going up but consider the fact that i am still a 22 year old, i am only thinking whether it will be smart to look up norrth when the Property prices in HK Is well F-ING EXPENSIVE

I don't know, I don't think the games in beijing have much to do witht the prices in shenzhen...
the economy is still growing strong and cities are a drawing point for many chinese people and companies from other towns and provinces as well as foreign ones.

The mindset there or here in shanghai of home buyers is not like ooh, the olympics are coming, i gotta buy a house so the foreigners can rent it for the 2 months being.
that's just not right. and id doesn't make sense either.

pegasus got that right that many places is empty because some people own 50, 100 or more flats and they don't renovate or rent them either.

I am in the business and I have landlords buying 20 or 30 flats, and then 1 or 2 every time they come to shanghai.
It's a different mindset though, they don't do it for making a quick buck, they see it like a bank, just better and safer.
Most of them know that prices fall and come, they had houses in 01, and saw them plummet to alltime lows in 05, but they kept them and they continue to buy through all circles.

It's just like Westerners keep buying a stock with every paycheck they get, I do it, so I know I can tap it later when I'm old and need it.

These people are usually not savvy enough to buy and flip, they do other businesses like running factories and all that, they don't spend money, they just like to save, and their way to do it is to buy houses, sometimes to rent out and sometimes just for the sake of having it.

Plus, sooner or later you going to run out of space, the downtown is pretty full and then it's a luxury to live in the city and prices are going to continue to go up.
It's like driving a bentley to a VW, both are cars, both fulfill their purpose but to some people the 10x extra price tag is worth it.

One can buy a stock with every month's paycheck. These guys can buy a house with each month's paycheck? Do your clients need a mortgage or they buy outright with cash?
wow, they buy 50 to a hundred houses and they are not savvy enough to flip. Well, at the rate they are buying they should even consider having a full time manager to manage their real estate business for them.
They are simply hoarding. My analysis is it is better at this moment to rent than to buy.

My take is that prices for most properties in China will begin to fall by year end, accelerating for the next five years. Any other views?

I take the same view, as it seems developers are slashing prices now to attract buyers. perhaps they realize that these prices are just simply unsustainable.

THe real estate evergrade or something like that scrap their HK IPO are now cutting prices as much as 40%. So who know the time to buy just might be around the corner.

Just last week I went to Zhuhai to take a look at the property prices there. The new development HORIZEN HEIGHTS by Hutchinson Whampoa even gave me a free VIP card with a promise of a 10,000 RMB discount should I choose to decide on buying a property there when it is launched later part of this year. In the past, buyers have to queue to buy, now they are even offering discounts ahead of their launch. So they know where the market is heading.

Pegasus333 wrote:One can buy a stock with every month's paycheck. These guys can buy a house with each month's paycheck? Do your clients need a mortgage or they buy outright with cash?
wow, they buy 50 to a hundred houses and they are not savvy enough to flip. Well, at the rate they are buying they should even consider having a full time manager to manage their real estate business for them.
They are simply hoarding. My analysis is it is better at this moment to rent than to buy.

well, there is a lot of money in china people don't see. that lady that comes every 1 or 2 months to buy one owns a furniture factory and most others are factory owners and traders too.

You still have a lack of housing, in most high-end places people wanna buy, but the owners don't sell, automatically prices go up by bidding until one falls for the bait.
You can't really measure china's real estate market with western methods as the mindset is totally different. the need for owning and the feeling of wasting money in the bank makes a lot.
People that flip usually flip one by one, and it takes about a month or 2 to take care of all the formalities.

I think the urge to sell quickly has also to do with a lot of government regulations on developers.

Zhuhai is a great place with lot's of potential I think.

For the inner city and downtown area's of the old Beijing town, and shanghai i'm bullish.

For outer skirt developments I think except for some special areas they are inflated.

bezoli wrote:

Pegasus333 wrote:One can buy a stock with every month's paycheck. These guys can buy a house with each month's paycheck? Do your clients need a mortgage or they buy outright with cash?
wow, they buy 50 to a hundred houses and they are not savvy enough to flip. Well, at the rate they are buying they should even consider having a full time manager to manage their real estate business for them.
They are simply hoarding. My analysis is it is better at this moment to rent than to buy.

well, there is a lot of money in china people don't see. that lady that comes every 1 or 2 months to buy one owns a furniture factory and most others are factory owners and traders too.

You still have a lack of housing, in most high-end places people wanna buy, but the owners don't sell, automatically prices go up by bidding until one falls for the bait.
You can't really measure china's real estate market with western methods as the mindset is totally different. the need for owning and the feeling of wasting money in the bank makes a lot.
People that flip usually flip one by one, and it takes about a month or 2 to take care of all the formalities.

I think the urge to sell quickly has also to do with a lot of government regulations on developers.

Zhuhai is a great place with lot's of potential I think.

For the inner city and downtown area's of the old Beijing town, and shanghai i'm bullish.

For outer skirt developments I think except for some special areas they are inflated.

Well i heard about these "invisible millionaires" as well, its not too suprising as Property hold a very deary position to Chinese.
Well considering the SZ property prices went nuts and went higher than the prices of prperties in New Territories in HK, many mainland investors and bought like 8-20 apartments.

But my position still lies on the fact that middle class Chinese workers will never be able to afford such ridiculous prices considering have 3000-4000 RMB is consider a decent wage already.

But anyway what about the rental market? Is it really really quiet?