Thanks for taking the time to help, I really apprciate it.

relevant laws and regulations is not complete, leading to the people rights between the legitimate interests have not been effectively protected.

Good topic, mark!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126044211353385043.html

Data Raise Fears of China Property Bubble

By JOY C. SHAW and TERENCE POON

SHANGHAI -- China's urban property prices grew at their fastest pace in 16 months in November, increasing concerns a market bubble may be forming and underscoring the challenge Beijing faces in sustaining the country's economic recovery while avoiding excess.

As part of the balancing act, Beijing Wednesday scaled back some of the stimulus it introduced last year and early this year to support the real-estate market during the financial crisis, and pledged to curb the speculation that has pushed home prices to unsustainably high levels in some cities.

Property prices in 70 of China's large and medium-sized cities rose 5.7% in November from a year earlier, accelerating from October's 3.9% rise, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Thursday. The increase was the sixth in a row and was the biggest since July 2008's 7% rise. Prices in November rose 1.2% from October, accelerating from October's sequential rise of 0.7%, the bureau said.

Johnson Hu, an analyst at UOB Kay Hian, said the central government will continue to closely monitor the property price trend and fine-tune its policies.

"If property price increases continue, while the target of gross domestic product growth is achieved or if there are signs of rising inflation, the government will very likely cancel the remaining housing market stimulus measures in the first half next year," Mr. Hu said.

Measures taken by Beijing to boost the property market included tax breaks, smaller down-payment requirements, and lower loan rates for first-time buyers.

Meanwhile, some of the huge rise in bank lending this year to support the government's economic stimulus efforts has also found its way to property speculators, contributing to the boom in home buying and values.

The State Council, or cabinet, decided Wednesday that starting next year, sales of homes by individuals will be exempt from tax only after at least five years of ownership. The government in January had reduced the period to two years to encourage home sales.

The government also diluted measures it had taken to boost consumption in the automobile sector, but it is being cautious in moving too quickly because the property and auto markets have been key drivers of the country's economic recovery.

Investment in real-estate development, one of the main forms of private investment in China, rose 17.8% to 3.13 trillion yuan ($458.5 billion) in the January-November period from a year earlier, up from a revised 16.6% in the January-October period, the statistics bureau also said.

Economists said the pickup in real-estate investment may help sustain economic growth, even after the impact of the government's broader 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus program starts to taper off.

Newly started real-estate construction surged 15.8% in the January-November period to 976 million square meters from the year-earlier period, up from just a 3.3% rise in the January-October period.

Nationwide property sales between January and November, including those in smaller cities, totaled 752 million square meters, up 53% from the year-earlier period, the bureau said.

Among the 70 large- and medium-sized cities in the statistics bureau survey, prices of newly built residential properties rose 6.2% in November from a year earlier, accelerating from a 4% rise in October.

Prices in the secondary market rose 5.5% in November from a year earlier, higher than October's 4.6% rise.

Write to Joy C. Shaw at joy.shaw@dowjones.net and Terence Poon at terence.poon@dowjones.com

emmaxixi wrote:

Humac wrote:

fWerrF wrote:Also, with real estate in the past 10 yrs, people think it's an easy way to make money

My former landlord, who is now selling his (my) apartment tells me he bought it 5 years ago for 1 million rmb. He's selling it for 5 million. Nice work if you can get it!

That's the point. Money talk.
It's not Shanghain ppl insane on the house issue. Locals have their own house, but people who want to be resident in Shanghai are so crazy about house buying. But so many people coming cause the rocketing prices, then smart person make money from the real estate (also the other reason for the rising prices). The concept is if you have a house in Shanghai, you are rich, because you are a millionaire at least. On the other hand, women love to marry rich men. Once the marriage works that could be very easy money. They think men are irresponsible. Men always cheat. So, between romantic and money, they all choose money. It's a vicious circle.

The returns on local real estate can be absolutely crazy, they are investing mostly for the money.

There is no real bubble in Shanghai center, it might drop some at a point but not burst.

The avg salary comments are meaningless, there is a large mass of rich Chinese and it's just growing. They have enough to buy 20 apartments in Shanghai and not just one with more money than they know what to do with.

Ever notice that most, if not all, info regarding China's housing market is censored?

shexpatdaniel wrote:large mass of rich Chinese

Party bigwigs? Unsustainable.

KalanStar wrote:Ever notice that most, if not all, info regarding China's housing market is censored?

What you don't know won't hurt you.

^^In that case, Chin is a painless country!

But I think they do it to protect their monopoly. Whether they admit it or not, most of the development companies building these new homes are government owned, and the banks lending the money to people are definitely government owned & managed. So the gov builds something, then lends the money to buy them. The higher the market value the longer people are indebted to the government and will slave away paying taxes and interest making the government rich. A nice closed little loop! I wonder what Mao would have to say about all this? It seems like a modern feudalism to me!

I'm crazy for house too....



Choooon!!

It's one thing for folks to want to own their own home, and strive to get out from under rent or mortgage payments. Looking to make some money on a real estate deal is another. Right now it looks like China is in a speculative bubble just like the US experienced until that bubble burst just recently. Where's all the money coming from to fuel this speculation? It's not coming from under the mattress, that's my guess. Ya think a $585B economic stimulus from BJ might have had something to do with it? Could've pushed money into the real estate industry that might have been invested elsewhere had the 'stimulus' not been implemented? Looks like 'unintended consequences' to me, but hey, I'm just a 2nd assistant bookkeeper.

KalanStar wrote:^^In that case, Chin is a painless country!

But I think they do it to protect their monopoly. Whether they admit it or not, most of the development companies building these new homes are government owned, and the banks lending the money to people are definitely government owned & managed. So the gov builds something, then lends the money to buy them. The higher the market value the longer people are indebted to the government and will slave away paying taxes and interest making the government rich. A nice closed little loop! I wonder what Mao would have to say about all this? It seems like a modern feudalism to me!

"Partу has told it is necessary - the Komsomol has answered is !", this is current motto of local banks. Gov promised 8-10% GDP growing in 2009 - and will reach this point ANYWAY. "After us the deluge".

Mister_happy wrote:I have read nothing in this thread that could not be said of people living in London, Paris, New York or any large city in the world.

The more you travel around the world the more you realize people are the same where ever you go.

If many of the shanghaiexpat community members knew, many of hatered and useless discussion could be avoided. But hey ....who cares?

Therealme wrote:

Mister_happy wrote:I have read nothing in this thread that could not be said of people living in London, Paris, New York or any large city in the world.

The more you travel around the world the more you realize people are the same where ever you go.

If many of the shanghaiexpat community members knew, many of hatered and useless discussion could be avoided. But hey ....who cares?

Actually, mister happy & therealme, the opposite is true! Thinking everyone is just like you is a sign of uninsightfulness not profoundness. It's the differences that create culture, not the sameness! Try visiting Japan and see if they are the same as the Chinese Thankfully, they are not!

I had a 3rd year Economics prof who told us that globalization meant everyone is becoming the same. She thought that since you could buy Coke or Levis jeans everywhere, that everyone was becoming the same. This comment revealed 2 things about her. 1) She equated consumerism with culture, and 2) she thought everyone was buying the Coke and Levi's for the same reasons. A typical mistake of any Economics major.

KalanStar wrote:

Therealme wrote:

Mister_happy wrote:I have read nothing in this thread that could not be said of people living in London, Paris, New York or any large city in the world.

The more you travel around the world the more you realize people are the same where ever you go.

If many of the shanghaiexpat community members knew, many of hatered and useless discussion could be avoided. But hey ....who cares?

Actually, mister happy & therealme, the opposite is true! Thinking everyone is just like you is a sign of uninsightfulness not profoundness. It's the differences that create culture, not the sameness! Try visiting Japan and see if they are the same as the Chinese Thankfully, they are not!

I had a 3rd year Economics prof who told us that globalization meant everyone is becoming the same. She thought that since you could buy Coke or Levis jeans everywhere, that everyone was becoming the same. This comment revealed 2 things about her. 1) She equated consumerism with culture, and 2) she thought everyone was buying the Coke and Levi's for the same reasons. A typical mistake of any Economics major.

You might be right, but I have the feeling that you confuse diversity and difference.

KalanStar wrote:

Therealme wrote:

Mister_happy wrote:I have read nothing in this thread that could not be said of people living in London, Paris, New York or any large city in the world.

The more you travel around the world the more you realize people are the same where ever you go.

If many of the shanghaiexpat community members knew, many of hatered and useless discussion could be avoided. But hey ....who cares?

Actually, mister happy & therealme, the opposite is true! Thinking everyone is just like you is a sign of uninsightfulness not profoundness. It's the differences that create culture, not the sameness! Try visiting Japan and see if they are the same as the Chinese Thankfully, they are not!

I had a 3rd year Economics prof who told us that globalization meant everyone is becoming the same. She thought that since you could buy Coke or Levis jeans everywhere, that everyone was becoming the same. This comment revealed 2 things about her. 1) She equated consumerism with culture, and 2) she thought everyone was buying the Coke and Levi's for the same reasons. A typical mistake of any Economics major.

You might be right, but I have the feeling that you confuse diversity and difference.

^^I fail to see the difference

diverse
1 : differing from one another : unlike
2 : composed of distinct or unlike elements or qualities
synonyms see "different"

different
1 : partly or totally unlike in nature, form, or quality
2 : not the same as

What might I have confused???

The Shanghai government just announced 9 million square meters of low income (ie family of 3, less than 5000rmb per month income) will be made available in the same neighborhoods as those expensive homes. According to the gov. most housing in Shanghai is being bought for investment. They claim prices have rose 50% in he past year and 6% last month alone! They say it is partt of their plan to lower the cost (ie value) of homes.

Perhaps prices will fall. Too bad for those already holding a mortgage, but I think if it truly works, then great!

A simple economics lesson for all you fools who believe prices will always go upBuying for investment purposes saturates the market with unused merchandise. What would happen if cars rose in value after you bought them? Seems laughable, right? \you drive it off the lot, come back a month later and the dealer gives you 6% more than you paid?? That's the housing market. Now what happens if everyone owns 3 - 4 cars which they do not use for anything but investing when the market capacity to borrow for investment fails? (ie People can no longer leverage the increase in value of a product they borrowed to buy to go and borrow more for a similar product.) Well, at the first sign of stagnation or slight percentage drop in value everyone tries to sell the 3 - 4 cars they are not using and the prices dive further. People cannot afford to make the payments for the ones they don't own outright as they were using capital derived from investing in cars for that, and now there is no more capital... and the car industry bubble bursts. There would be parking lots with thousands of repossessed and thrown away cars turning to rust. Now think of Shanghai as giant parking lot for empty homes... Now insert"bread" for "cars".... joe blow sells 1 million loves a month. The market needs 1.5 million loaves a month, so prices of bread rise... people even start to horde bread as investments, so joe blow bakes 2 million loaves... so many people are hording that the price continues to go up.. so joe blow bakes 3 million, no one can afford to horde the surplus and the market is saturated with bread, suddenly the price drops lower than it's starting point and joe blow only sells 1.5 million loaves a month. Shanghai is currently in the middle of this bread scenario! (BTW, the potato famine was caused in this way. Thousands starved while potatoes were in fact being horded!)

Now, what will 9 million additional sqaure meters added to a saturated housing market near carrying capacity do?

BTW, here some new about credits/loans:

(In Chinese) http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/language_t ... 195408.htm

(Under Google translation) http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... =&ie=UTF-8

See "China Daily" reported:

Code phrase: In the future, to conduct credit card fraud and fraudsters will be subject to legal penalties more seriously, will be sentenced to life imprisonment (life imprisonment).

Credit card overdraft 5000 RMB sentenced to imprisonment for 6 months.

http://www.caifu51.com/yinxingzixun/26992.html

http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... =&ie=UTF-8

I said in another thread that when I bought my flat it was to be a home and not an invesment. So I will always be happy living here and been able to take my son into the park to kick a football or to chase the ducks!

The new 400sq m villias that are now on sale 20min walk up the road from me are now on sale for 100,000rmb/sq m or around 4,000,000euro. So the introduction of 100,000 low cost house at the end of all the outer Metro Lines is going to reduce those prices.

People are the same where ever you go in the world, its the little differences that make life interesting. A smile is the same in any language!

Or people will buy those places for such a low price, only to sell them straight away at an enormous profit.

This policy had been introduced a few times years ago and nothing changed.

KalanStar wrote:A simple economics lesson for all you fools who believe prices will always go up...

the concept is reasonable enough. but even so, in the town i'm working in, they just keep building and building and building - tons of nice highrises even in fringe rural areas away from markets and restaurants. you'd need a car to live in these places, but the rural areas are mostly filled with farmers and other low-income workers who can't afford to live in these places.

every week driving past the new highrises, i can see straight through the building windows to the other side because the vast majority of them are empty. i see brand new buildings constructed a year ago still sitting unoccupied. and they're still building tons of new highrises in the same areas.

there's even a gated luxury neighborhood of 2-3 story mini-mansions styled sort of like spanish villas. it's close to the beach, but way out in the boonies with little commercial development around. every time i pass by, i never see any signs of life there...no cars, no people, nothing hanging in the windows or driveways. it's like a ghost town and it's been that way for years. the only people that could afford to live there would be local big-business executives (even these would not be local chinese), and i highly doubt they'd all want to live in the same small secluded neighborhood with the closest store 15mins away by car.

it's obvious the local housing market is saturated, but they just keep building regardless of whether they are being occupied or not. i've been watching for over a year, and they're not slowing down. they are doing a great job blocking the entire ocean-front view with empty buildings, though.

^^I see the same thing. I have friends that own 3 and 4 homes, but only finish th interior of one. Who's buying the new homes, the people who have already bought 2 or 3. Their salaries alone likely do not finance such expenditures, rather it is the increase in collateral provided by the houses they own increasing in value at +5% per month. If the market stagatets, they'll be forced to default on the majority of their 'investments' leading from saturation to a glut in the housing market. This is the end of the bubble market. It'll inevitably happen, don't worry!

In 2001, 3 story luxury homes were selling for a mere 300 000 rmb! Same location, same house today is "worth" 3 million... but to me it isn't! It's 9 years old... so I'd only pay 225 000 rmb! That's it's true value, probably less since at that time there was only 8 houses like that in the area, now there's hundreds if not thousands!

Capitalism show ugly face : http://img4.cache.netease.com/photo/000 ... AN0001.jpg

KalanStar wrote: A simple economics lesson for all you fools who believe prices will always go up

it does not matter what one believes.
as long as you sell higher than you buy, its all good in the hood.

its like stocks. you do not want to be investors, you just want to be traders.

Interesting and one of the most logical reasons I've heard why China's real estate so high...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/178973- ... he-problem

At this days i seen in news s what Shanghai Gov build 300k m2 of apartments for local low income pipl and will sell it for ... 5000 rmb/m. Here we got idea about the COST of that property.

So we aren't discussing this then

Therealme wrote:

KalanStar wrote:

Therealme wrote:

Mister_happy wrote:I have read nothing in this thread that could not be said of people living in London, Paris, New York or any large city in the world.

The more you travel around the world the more you realize people are the same where ever you go.

If many of the shanghaiexpat community members knew, many of hatered and useless discussion could be avoided. But hey ....who cares?

Actually, mister happy & therealme, the opposite is true! Thinking everyone is just like you is a sign of uninsightfulness not profoundness. It's the differences that create culture, not the sameness! Try visiting Japan and see if they are the same as the Chinese Thankfully, they are not!

I had a 3rd year Economics prof who told us that globalization meant everyone is becoming the same. She thought that since you could buy Coke or Levis jeans everywhere, that everyone was becoming the same. This comment revealed 2 things about her. 1) She equated consumerism with culture, and 2) she thought everyone was buying the Coke and Levi's for the same reasons. A typical mistake of any Economics major.

You might be right, but I have the feeling that you confuse diversity and difference.

Without difference, there is no diversity.