http://seekingalpha.com/article/308830- ... al-or-both

I don't like reading articles like this. Any of you have fears for the coming years?

No fear, unless you count the real estate falling down rather than the market...

I think many of the media reports on China are either too positive or too negative on it's economic prospects.

In the commercial sector, China holds the record for the world's largest shopping mall. Currently it is 98% vacant.

So what that's one mall in China that picked the wrong location or bad management or made some other bad business decision. There's plenty of malls all around China going great and super crowded.

Just over a year ago, millions watched and prayed for 33 trapped miners in Peru. On average, 13 miners are killed each day in China and the mines are responsible for as much as 80% of worldwide coal mining deaths. China's mines are easily the world's most dangerous. Strikes and prοtests by miners are becoming more common as anger grows.

What people don't get is that as long as things were better then couple years ago or a generation ago the majority of people will not revolt. It's common human nature....the average US income is probably around 10X China's but people it seems more unhappy and ready to revolt (vote out the current government) because they feel that their standard of living is not as good as a few years ago and might not be better for their kids even though it will still be many time better then most of the rest of the world.

I'm not sure myself how china will do in the intermediate future....a big part because China through it's banks/state owned companies/....it is not really clear how much it owes (in debt) vs how much it has saved up or it's other economic stats which may or may not be true.

I went to a smaller mall/Emart today and at least half of the businesses were gone. Thought: "What's going on here?"

My prediction of Chinese economy.
Due to the change in dictators scheduled for next fall, the current rulers of the regime will do very little to correct the economic imbalances. 6% of China's 9% gdp growth has been produced from the housing sector and as 2012 passes, the housing sector will completely falter driving gdp down to 3 or 4% and causing massive unemployment in migrant labour communities and in related industries such as steel (20% of steel production is for the real-estate industry). The CCP as it has always done since New China rose will deny all the evidence of a downturn and censor any information to the contrary. They are already importing and stockpiling things like copper in Beijing to hide the fact that the industrial output of China is faltering. To temporarily solve the problem of NPF's and bankrupt cities like Wuhan and Shanghai, they'll allow these cities to sell bonds to the state banks (already happening here). These bonds will have a set term and a government mandated rate of increase likely matching inflation (that some claim is as high as 16%, but bonds will never have such a rate of growth instead increasing in value according to the state decided false inflation rate of 6 or 7%). State banks will claim that they are earning profits from the increase in value of these worthless bonds and return to lending back to bankrupt local governments based on their imaginary earnings on the essentially non-performing bonds. Before the time the terms come due, the new dictators will be firmly in control of the Party, the government, and the PLA (2014). The housing market will have faltered by that time and the cities owing the banks the bond money will be doubly bankrupt, but the Party will never let on. Instead the next generation of China's dictators will blame an outside force for any ills, perhaps the West, perhaps lightening. At the same time these pro-Maoists will come up with the "new" idea of communism and the hordes of unemployed peasants will be sent to the agro-city-communes and Mao's dream will be once again realized. China will close itself to the West like in 1958 and many Chinese will starve to death while all those that participated in China's "opening-up will be vilified and likely murdered, including all home and car owners... Or perhaps I'm just being pessimistic??? But the old saying is true, "Those who fail to learn from their mistakes (basically almost all of China's modern history that no one here knows anything about) are doomed to repeat them!"

KopyKatKiller wrote:I went to a smaller mall/Emart today and at least half of the businesses were gone. Thought: "What's going on here?"

My prediction of Chinese economy.
Due to the change in dictators scheduled for next fall, the current rulers of the regime will do very little to correct the economic imbalances. 6% of China's 9% gdp growth has been produced from the housing sector and as 2012 passes, the housing sector will completely falter driving gdp down to 3 or 4% and causing massive unemployment in migrant labour communities and in related industries such as steel (20% of steel production is for the real-estate industry). The CCP as it has always done since New China rose will deny all the evidence of a downturn and censor any information to the contrary. They are already importing and stockpiling things like copper in Beijing to hide the fact that the industrial output of China is faltering. To temporarily solve the problem of NPF's and bankrupt cities like Wuhan and Shanghai, they'll allow these cities to sell bonds to the state banks (already happening here). These bonds will have a set term and a government mandated rate of increase likely matching inflation (that some claim is as high as 16%, but bonds will never have such a rate of growth instead increasing in value according to the state decided false inflation rate of 6 or 7%). State banks will claim that they are earning profits from the increase in value of these worthless bonds and return to lending back to bankrupt local governments based on their imaginary earnings on the essentially non-performing bonds. Before the time the terms come due, the new dictators will be firmly in control of the Party, the government, and the PLA (2014). The housing market will have faltered by that time and the cities owing the banks the bond money will be doubly bankrupt, but the Party will never let on. Instead the next generation of China's dictators will blame an outside force for any ills, perhaps the West, perhaps lightening. At the same time these pro-Maoists will come up with the "new" idea of communism and the hordes of unemployed peasants will be sent to the agro-city-communes and Mao's dream will be once again realized. China will close itself to the West like in 1958 and many Chinese will starve to death while all those that participated in China's "opening-up will be vilified and likely murdered, including all home and car owners... Or perhaps I'm just being pessimistic??? But the old saying is true, "Those who fail to learn from their mistakes (basically almost all of China's modern history that no one here knows anything about) are doomed to repeat them!"

I think what you wrote the first part might come true but do not think China will ever go back to the Mao policies because many even if they do not teach it in school know of the starvation/depression that caused their grandparents generation to suffer. Overall I think China's federal government now is smarter and longer term thinking (since don't have to worry about elections) then those in the west. Their own greed will cause some problems but self preservation will restrain it, they also are now the wealthy/educated group unlike before.

External (protectionism, depression...) reasons might cause great economic problems in China but keeping one child policy will keep the labor force from growing and keep the population of young people low (they not the middle age folks start revolutions). If economic problems come up though I think they might invade taiwan and rally the population to take it back in the name of nationalism.

highlander wrote:

KopyKatKiller wrote:I went to a smaller mall/Emart today and at least half of the businesses were gone. Thought: "What's going on here?"

My prediction of Chinese economy.
Due to the change in dictators scheduled for next fall, the current rulers of the regime will do very little to correct the economic imbalances. 6% of China's 9% gdp growth has been produced from the housing sector and as 2012 passes, the housing sector will completely falter driving gdp down to 3 or 4% and causing massive unemployment in migrant labour communities and in related industries such as steel (20% of steel production is for the real-estate industry). The CCP as it has always done since New China rose will deny all the evidence of a downturn and censor any information to the contrary. They are already importing and stockpiling things like copper in Beijing to hide the fact that the industrial output of China is faltering. To temporarily solve the problem of NPF's and bankrupt cities like Wuhan and Shanghai, they'll allow these cities to sell bonds to the state banks (already happening here). These bonds will have a set term and a government mandated rate of increase likely matching inflation (that some claim is as high as 16%, but bonds will never have such a rate of growth instead increasing in value according to the state decided false inflation rate of 6 or 7%). State banks will claim that they are earning profits from the increase in value of these worthless bonds and return to lending back to bankrupt local governments based on their imaginary earnings on the essentially non-performing bonds. Before the time the terms come due, the new dictators will be firmly in control of the Party, the government, and the PLA (2014). The housing market will have faltered by that time and the cities owing the banks the bond money will be doubly bankrupt, but the Party will never let on. Instead the next generation of China's dictators will blame an outside force for any ills, perhaps the West, perhaps lightening. At the same time these pro-Maoists will come up with the "new" idea of communism and the hordes of unemployed peasants will be sent to the agro-city-communes and Mao's dream will be once again realized. China will close itself to the West like in 1958 and many Chinese will starve to death while all those that participated in China's "opening-up will be vilified and likely murdered, including all home and car owners... Or perhaps I'm just being pessimistic??? But the old saying is true, "Those who fail to learn from their mistakes (basically almost all of China's modern history that no one here knows anything about) are doomed to repeat them!"

I think what you wrote the first part might come true but do not think China will ever go back to the Mao policies because many even if they do not teach it in school know of the starvation/depression that caused their grandparents generation to suffer. Overall I think China's federal government now is smarter and longer term thinking (since don't have to worry about elections) then those in the west. Their own greed will cause some problems but self preservation will restrain it, they also are now the wealthy/educated group unlike before.

External (protectionism, depression...) reasons might cause great economic problems in China but keeping one child policy will keep the labor force from growing and keep the population of young people low (they not the middle age folks start revolutions). If economic problems come up though I think they might invade taiwan and rally the population to take it back in the name of nationalism.

Perhaps, but I think you're just being optimistic... I've asked 20 somethings about what they learned about the famine during the Great Leap. All they know is that bugs ate the crops. They don't know that in addition to the ridiculous "Kill the Birds" campaign that led to the bugs, the backyard furnaces that ate all the orchids and farming tools or the main reason for the famine, the CCP. The Party seized all the people's food and exported it while millions (40 - 60 million) starved. people were eating grass and dirt while the Party members dined on meat and sold the people's food to repay Russian loans. People here, even those who lived through it, don't know that. That's the cold-hearted evilness the Party was, is, and forever will be capable of. Never say "never"...

Your nationalism idea is on the mark. Likely the pro-Maoists coming in will start a war with someone to distract Chinese from the real cause of their ills, the CCP.

Policies n this country turn ion a dime. Modern history for the peasants has been: Give them the land (actually 90% of peasants were land owners at the time of the revolution, so it was more like, taking land from large landowners, killing them, and giving it to small holders.) Take it away and make a commune. Give it back to them again. A few months later, take it away again. Give it back for ten years. then take it away as part of the destruction of the 4 olds. Give it back and assure them it is for life. Take it away again and build housing on it... Soon they'll be redistributing it again to appease the masses and the 75 year leases people think they have on their worthless flats will evaporate into thin air.

Deng Xiao Peng (or Deng Xiao Ren or That F*cking Leprechaun Deng! as I like to call him) is another figure who it is interesting to hear the locals talk about. The great reformer. The opening up master etc. etc. drips from their lips. Not a soul knows that he was one of Mao's key henchmen in killing and jailing any who opposed the god-like father of modern China.

No country in history has done so much to wipe history of truth than China... No one's learned a damn thing in the last 70 years here. Nothing. Even something as benign as air quality ratings here today is as distorted, misreported, and downright lied about as the "record" grain harvests were during the Great Leap. Nothing has changed...